Barring any last minute international crisis or a sudden change of heart by American voters it looks increasingly likely that Barack Obama will be elected American President on Tuesday. This has been a truly fascinating electoral campaign with two suitable candidates promising change and a new a direction for America, certainly needed after eight years of George Bush.
This election is historic. If Obama wins, he will be the first African-American President of the US, which says a lot about America and how far minorities have advanced. Should John McCain win, America would have its first female Vice President and McCain would have defied all the odds, proved the polls wrong and managed to convince the electorate to vote for a Republican candidate.
Obama is leading in the polls in most of the so-called 'swing' or 'battleground' states, such as Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia, which voted Republican in the last two presidential elections and which now could switch to the Democrats.
He is also leading in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, two states which voted for John Kerry in 2004 but which have been targeted by McCain. Although the gap in the national polls between the two candidates is narrowing, it looks like the odds are in Obama's favour.
The need for change and the economic situation have dominated this election. Polls have consistently shown that the large majority of voters identified the economy as their main concern and are unhappy with the country's present direction. As one Republican strategist, Joe Gaylord of Arlington, Virginia, said: "People will vote for change, and Barack Obama represents that change. And try as he (McCain) will - and he has - to be the candidate of change, he could not. He could not overcome the weight of George Bush's failed policies."
Obama had a better and more focused campaign. It is true that the financial crisis - which many blame the current Bush administration for - has substantially boosted Obama's chances of winning. Had there been no such crisis, the election would have certainly been closer. Throughout the campaign Obama remained calm, cautious and level-headed when dealing with economic and foreign policy issues. He appealed to the voters' desire for change and linked McCain to Bush's policies, repeating over and over again that McCain had voted for President Bush 95 per cent of the time in the Senate. He also made universal health care a key issue of his campaign. Over 45 million Americans do not have health insurance.
McCain's campaign was not as resolute. It was sometimes populist and initially based too much on attacking Obama himself instead of his policies. McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential running mate was a popular decision among grass roots Republicans and certainly had the desired effect: mobilising the base of the Republican Party and the party's Christian right-wing. However, on balance it looks like Palin put off independent voters - who ultimately determine the election - as many believed she was unqualified.
McCain, who had a record of being a moderate Republican, moved somewhat to the Right during the campaign, which discouraged some of his potential supporters. For example, although he had opposed President Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy, he said he wanted to make them permanent.
Significantly a number of high profile Republicans, such as former Secretary of State Colin Powell, former Maryland Senator Charles Mathias, former Massachusetts Governor William Weld and former Bush press secretary Scott McClellan back Obama for President.
Of course, there are areas of Obama's policies that are cause for concern. He has adopted a somewhat populist attitude towards free trade and has a liberal record on abortion. Furthermore, he has nearly always towed the party line when voting in the Senate, which begs the question whether he would be able to stand up to a large Democratic majority in Congress - the prospect of which looks increasingly likely after Tuesday. And, yes, he will go through a learning curve in foreign policy, but this is no different from most past presidents as they enter the White House.
Obama has the necessary qualities to be a very good President and Powell was right when he said Obama would be a transformational figure. America is a demoralised nation. Its economy is performing badly and its international image and reputation is at an all-time low. Obama inspires confidence - a crucial characteristic - and seems able to bring about change domestically and internationally.
Economy plays a major role in this election. At a rally I attended two weeks ago in Roanoke, Virginia, Obama told his supporters about an encounter he had with a restaurant owner in Ohio when he stopped for lunch during the campaign trail. Employees had asked Obama to have their photo taken with him because their boss was a "diehard Republican" and wanted to tease him.
When Obama met the owner, he told him he heard he was a diehard Republican, to which the restaurateur replied in the affirmative. "How's business?" Obama asked. "Not too good," replied the businessman. "Who has been running the economy for the last eight years," Obama asked.
"The Republicans have," the owner replied. "Well, you might try out the Democrats this time," Obama said. "That makes sense," the Republican said.
If diehard Republicans will vote for Obama, then he can be assured of victory.