Bear in the middle

The day is fast approaching when my European parliamentary colleague and party leader, Joseph Muscat, will give up his EP seat to become Leader of the Opposition. One of the minor implications of his resignation is that he will also relinquish the vice-presidency of the EU-Belarus delegation.

When I confided my interest to visit Belarus he gave me sound advice. Apply for a normal visa as otherwise you may run the risk of being declined as a persona non grata.

Belarus has been described by the US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice as an "outpost of tyranny". After the EU imposed sanctions on the country, including travel restrictions on its leaders, Belarus reciprocated in kind.

What peaked my interest in this country was the sombre news, with fresh instalments each day, about Russia's relations with its neighbours in the wake of the recent war with Georgia.

Most reports focus on neighbours who look apprehensively at Russia, like Georgia, or at least ambivalently, like Ukraine. Belarus is one of the states, however, which have been led by a pro-Russian populist since 1994.

President Alexander Lukashenko has unabashedly described his leadership style as authoritarian. In 10 days' time, on September 18, the country will hold its parliamentary elections. Observing the elections closely, given repeated claims of fraud over the years, will be a delegation from the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly.

In anticipation of the observation mission I decided to make a short private visit, on a tourist-visa, to Belarus at the end of August.

From the airport I was driven on excellent roads through a countryside interspersed with fields and forests. Narrow, three- or four-storey high houses with corrugated iron roofs were grouped in small hamlets.

I realised that we were approaching the capital Minsk as the scenery was gradually replaced by blocks of state housing so typical of the East European style. But once in the inner city I could see impeccable and excellently-maintained buildings: pastel-coloured little palazzos, in wide roads with trees on either side, and beautiful road-signs (impressive even for those who, like me, cannot read the Cyrillic alphabet).

On the second day, a complimentary English-language newspaper informed me that two political prisoners had been released, at the request of the President. The news, presumably aimed to show President Lukashenko's magnanimity, reminded me that I was in an authoritarian country: the well-kept city -with its smart buses and cars, the discreetly signed shops, flood-lit façades, and elegant pedestrian walkways - was ruled by an iron fist.

Moreover, it is a country that still has a close relationship to Russia, despite repeated clashes over oil and gas supplies. Belarus is generally a pro-Russian, landlocked country that has a history of being periodically united with one or another of its neighbours: Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine, apart from Russia. Belarus's Protestant minority traces its history back to a period when the country fell under the rule of Sweden.

Although it is not interested in becoming a Nato member, it participates in the Individual Partnership Programme. Its foreign policy should help the EU think about its Russia policy. I believe it is unrealistic to expect Russia to accept to be surrounded by Nato or even EU members on its immediate borders. Whatever its tensions with a country like Belarus, Russia will always prefer to have a country like that as its neighbour.

But the Georgia debacle must have had an intimidating effect on all Russia's neighbours including its allies. While ambling along the edge of a lake in historic Minsk I witnessed thousands of army recruits marching in formation. That evening, watching state television, I understood that the military had staged a show of force.

What the EU needs to consider, therefore, is whether a solution to Georgia's and Ukraine's aspirations may be met while seeking to create other "bears in the middle". Recently, one proposal suggested brokering independence for states like South Ossetia, which would create a buffer zone for Russia.

Whether or not that particular solution should be chosen, it is along such creative compromises that we should be thinking. I suspect the result of the imminent elections in Belarus will underline why.

Dr Attard Montalto is a Labour member of the European Parliament