Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni declared victory last night in an election to succeed Prime Minister Ehud Olmert as leader of the ruling Kadima party. She told supporters in a conference call, "The good guys won".

Two polls, on Channels 1 and 10, gave Mrs Livni at least a 10-point lead over Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz and seven to nine points above a 40-per cent threshold to secure outright victory in the four-person first round without a run-off ballot.

Mrs Livni faces several obstacles, however, before she can replace the scandal-hit Olmert as premier and become Israel's first woman leader since Golda Meir in the 1970s.

Mr Olmert, who has said he will resign as he faces possible indictment for corruption, plans to stay on in a caretaker capacity to continue US-sponsored peace talks with the Palestinians while Mrs Livni tries to forge a new coalition.

Even if Mrs Livni consolidates her grip on centrist Kadima, many see a parliamentary election in months.

Kadima, founded in 2005 by then premier Ariel Sharon, has just a quarter of the seats in the Knesset. Rivals, some within Mr Olmert's coalition, are preparing for a national battle that polls show may favour Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing Likud.

"This is the beginning of a very arduous road to become prime minister," former Sharon adviser Ranan Gissin said.

"She needs to reach a consensus at home because otherwise Kadima will fall apart at the seams."

Channel 1's exit poll gave Mrs Livni 47 per cent to Mr Mofaz's 37 per cent. Channel 10 gave Mr Mofaz, an ex-general and former defence minister, that same score and Mrs Livni 49 per cent.

Mrs Livni, who is Israel's chief negotiator in the peace talks with the Palestinians launched by US President George W. Bush 10 months ago, is widely seen as offering continuity in that process, but few on either side see a major breakthrough for peace before Mr Bush himself leaves office four months from now.

Chief Palestinian negotiator Ahmed Qurie said: "Because Livni was immersed in the peace process, we believe she will pursue peace moves with us.

"We welcome the choice of the Israeli people."

Political analyst Shmuel Sandler said: "It is very difficult to predict whether she will be a strong prime minister. We will have to wait and see."

But he noted her personal ties with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and said: "In Washington they will be very pleased with this outcome, she is a good friend of Condoleezza."

Hailed by supporters as a "Mrs Clean" who would end the taint of scandal left by Mr Olmert and others, Mrs Livni said in a campaign statement earlier yesterday: "This is a second chance to shape Israel's image, to fix the damage and to place the good of the country and its people at the centre."