Tuesday, 26th August 2008 - 12:06CET

Malta's population to drop by 5,000 by 2060

Malta’s population in 2060 is expected to be 405,000, which would be 5,000 less than at present, according to a Eurostat report on the likely future size and structure of the EU population.

According to the report, while the population difference between Malta and Luxembourg currently stands at just 72,000 - with the population in Luxembourg being 482,000, in 2060 the difference will be of 327,000 since the population in Luxembourg is expected to rise by 250,000. It did not explain the reasons for such a wide change.

The member states with the largest populations in 2060 would be the United Kingdom (77 million), France (72 million), Germany (71 million), Italy (59 million) and Spain (52 million).

The report says that the EU27 population is projected to increase from the current 495 million to 521 million in 2035, and thereafter gradually decline to 506 million in 2060.

The annual number of births is projected to fall over the period 2008-2060, while at the same time the annual number of deaths is projected to continue rising.

From 2015 onwards deaths would outnumber births, and hence population growth due to natural increase would cease. From this point onwards, positive net migration would be the only population growth factor. However, from 2035 this positive net migration would no longer counterbalance the negative natural change, and the population is projected to begin to fall.

The EU27 population is also projected to continue to grow older, with the share of the population aged 65 years and over rising from 17.1 percent in 2008 to 30 percent in 2060, and those aged 80 and over rising from 4.4 percent to 12.1 percent over the same period.

There are projected to be considerable differences between the individual member states. Between 2008 and 2060, the population is projected to rise in 13 member states and fall in 14. In Malta, the population is expected to fall by 1.4 per cent.

The EU27 population is projected to become older throughout the projection period, due in particular to persistently low fertility and an increasing number of survivors to higher ages. This ageing process would occur in all member states. In 2060, the share of the population aged 65 or more is projected to range from 23.6 percent in Luxembourg, 24.7 percent in the United Kingdom and 25 percent in Denmark to 36.2 percent in Poland, 36.1 percent in Slovakia and 35.0 percent in Romania. Malta will have 32.4 per cent of its people who will be 65 or older.

In consequence, the old age dependency ratio in the EU27 - the population aged 65 years and older divided by the working age population, is projected to increase from 25 percent in 2008 to 53 percent in 2060.

In other words, there will be only two persons of working age for every person aged 65 or more in 2060, compared with four persons to one today.

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Article © Allied Newspapers Ltd., printed on Saturday, November 21, 2009. This article is for personal use only, and should not be distributed.

Comments

Ivan Attard (on 26/8/08)

Eurostat?
Pure and unadultered puppy-poop. In 2060 the population of these island will be either of these 2 options:

OPTION 1: 410,000 indegenious population + 140,00 ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS + 50,000 ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS' OFFSPRING = Total 6000,000

OPTION 2: 200,000 indegenious population (over half of whom would have fled this hellhole of our government's making) + 140,00 ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS + 50,000 ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS' OFFSPRING = Total 390,000

Any other comments from 'humanely inclined' individuals is superfluous.

So much for Eurostat!

M. Mercieca (on 26/8/08)

The average birth rate in the EU is down to about 1.5 children per woman, raising fears that an ageing European population will not be able to finance pensions systems. This population’s deficit must be filled. This mean more man power is needed. This very simple fact Immigrants understand it. European citizens (politicians not included) don’t.

But the EU may only require skilled immigrant?

Then, The European Commission should provide adequate finance to the European Union countries (Mainly southern Countries) not only to feed or shelter the immigrant but also to create a training center ETC –style. This center is to provide training to semi and or un-skilled immigrants and may also provide opportunities (within) for some un employed Maltese. In my humble opinion this is how to turn a ‘problem’ into a good opportunity – I guess this is where the EU politicians heading anyway.

Bernard Cachia (on 26/8/08)

Basically Eurostat is predicting that the number of Maltese will fall by about 78,000 while the number of immigrants will be just over 70,000 (assuming that the second group is not granted citizenship or does not marry into the local population on a major scale). They're basing this on an assumption of around 1000 immigrants a year and on our own domestic fertility trends. In any case, it's a projection not a prediction.

Joseph Calleja (on 26/8/08)

Well now let's see! if an average of 100 to 150 boat people arrive at Malta each week how does that figure drop down the population of Malta by 5000 by 2060. The only way this would happen if most Maltese emigrate and no more illegal emigrants arrive in Malta after the next few years.. You do the math and I'm sure you come up with a different figure too.

Charles Sammut (on 26/8/08)

Who churns out all this bumf?

The problem is that we pay for it. As if anyone can predict what will happen in 2060, we cannot even predict the weather in ten days' time, never mind social trends in 50 years' time.

As others have said before, the EU is just one big white elephant, eating tons of food and producing tons of poop.

Richard O'Sullivan (on 26/8/08)

Time for Malta to make more babies.. sixes and sevens would be ideal...Someone has to pay for my pension!

Giles Zammit (on 26/8/08)

If this is true, which is sincerely doubt it, is good news for our small island.

Less people = less pollution.

Population outbreak = civil unrest/civil war.

J.M. Chapelle (on 26/8/08)

An 'internet speak' expression re this article:

O RLY? (Oh really?)

Just last week the Eurostat came in here and told us about how illegal immigration is no.2 on our worry list with no.1 topping it.... and now it comes in here and tells us this?

Truth or not, it still shows us one thing: poeple don't want those immigrants and they hate seeing the EU sitting on its hands whistling Strauss. You only need dissect a heated debate for an answer, no need to fish about for super surveys and statistical nonsense.

Action! not numbers!

A.Vella (on 26/8/08)

Reading these comments really makes me feel good about myself. I am proud to have an intelligence by far superior than the average maltese.

Thanks for making my day.

rene vassallo (on 26/8/08)

this is pure propaganda by the same bunch of liberals (peppi and co.) Don t beleive them full stop

Tony Abdilla (on 26/8/08)

The more the merrier. Let's have more people! If need be, yes, immigrants!

Joe Morana (on 26/8/08)

The last sentence in paragraph six gives one food for thought: "..... from2035 this positive net migration.....". In 27 years, at a rate of an average 2,000 illegal immigrants per year, will net Malta 54,000 more bodies at a minimum. Add to this the "increase and multiply" factor prescribed by God in Genesis, while accepting what bleeding heart liberals tell us that, like it or not, illegal immigation is here to stay. Malta will have ceased to be part of Europe by then because it will either have sunk under the sheer weight of numbers, or become a defacto part of Africa! Don't cry for me......!

J Farrugia (on 26/8/08)

Who is this eurostat? What do they know about Malta and its people? They do not know even if this eurostat will still be in existence in 2009, let alone in 2060?

Randolph Peresso (on 26/8/08)

Some of you are really fixated with these illegal immagrants!!!!!!!

Get a life! and start having an angle of view of 360 degrees, rather than one of 5 degrees!

A Camilleri (on 26/8/08)

Dear Tony Caruana, if you want to work for the EU institutions just visit http://europa.eu/epso/epso_index_mt.html Regardless of what colour your eyes are! just pass the exam procedure and you are in. For once, stand up for yourself and be counted. Good luck

Bernard Cachia (on 26/8/08)

The Eurostat website (not extremely user-friendly but a goldmine nevertheless) has all the assumptions used for these projections. Their net immigration assumption for Malta over the next 50 years is about a thousand a year (their assumption for this year is 993, which is probably on the low side).
Their projection for a 'zero net immigration' scenario is of 332,610 in 2060. This basically means that, assuming that the immigrant community maintains a completely separate cultural and demographic identity throughout this period, it would be projected to amount to around 70,000 individuals, or just over 17% of the population.
Incidentally, the UN Statistics Office also issues projections for a similar timeframe but with slightly different assumptions. The results are not usually dramatically different.
The projection for Luxembourg assumes a net immigration of around 4,000 a year, which explains the projected dramatic rise in the population there. These would be mostly from neighbouring EU countries.

B Borg (on 26/8/08)

Not at the increasing rate of illegals arriving here ever since we joined the farce that is the EU in 2004!

Eurstat, Like Frontex, the European Parliament and the rest of the EU itself, is just a waste of money - Or let me put it better, a quick way for a relatively small number of people to become very rich very quickly at the expense of the rest of the population.

P Debono (on 26/8/08)

How convenient for the EU to yet again forget about the 3000+ illegals that we are getting every year.

Kevin Johnson (on 26/8/08)

"In other words, there will be only two persons of working age for every person aged 65 or more in 2060, compared with four persons to one today."

With this rate, I guess retirement age will be increased to 85 by 2060. Can I stop paying NI please?

Denis Catania (on 26/8/08)

I doubt they know what they are talking about. But with an Island of 126 Sq miles. The population can't grow anymore. I believe this is a propaganda to justify for the illegals, Malta is getting stuck with.

tony caruana (on 26/8/08)

Obviously the Eurostats do not know what they are saying. It seems they have no beeter way how to spend money. But then isn't that what the EU is about. Keep a few thousand blue eyed boys from each country happy and you will make sure the EU won' disintagrate !!!!

Joe Galea (on 26/8/08)

With 3000 illegal immigrants per year till 2060 we will have 156,000 approx. That would make up for the lower birth rate by MALTESE.

Tony Bonello (on 26/8/08)

Is anybody noticing the amount of Philippino women brought over by 'rich' people, paid like slaves, doing almost everything, babysitters, cleaners etc etc not to mention entertaining the husbands as well. And what about all the russian women around as well. By 2060 Malta will have a population of 430,000, a quarter of them philippinos, russians and africans!!!

E. Azzopardi (on 26/8/08)

Not at the rate these illegal immigrants are coming! And what about their children born in Malta. Besides the other big problem we have of foreigners over staying as their visa has expired. This is another big problem nobody rarely mentions and they in their hundreds!! So, no the people will not shut up and this is for the good of ALL citizens, even those who cannot or do not want to see!!!!! But , hope is eternal and eventually they come to their senses.

A. Tabone (on 26/8/08)

Are they forgetting the 3000 illegals that we get per year?

Iris Azzopardi (on 26/8/08)

These forecasts must be taken with more than a handful of salt.

Malta's population to drop by 5,000 by 2060

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