Malta’s population in 2060 is expected to be 405,000, which would be 5,000 less than at present, according to a Eurostat report on the likely future size and structure of the EU population.

According to the report, while the population difference between Malta and Luxembourg currently stands at just 72,000 - with the population in Luxembourg being 482,000, in 2060 the difference will be of 327,000 since the population in Luxembourg is expected to rise by 250,000. It did not explain the reasons for such a wide change.

The member states with the largest populations in 2060 would be the United Kingdom (77 million), France (72 million), Germany (71 million), Italy (59 million) and Spain (52 million).

The report says that the EU27 population is projected to increase from the current 495 million to 521 million in 2035, and thereafter gradually decline to 506 million in 2060.

The annual number of births is projected to fall over the period 2008-2060, while at the same time the annual number of deaths is projected to continue rising.

From 2015 onwards deaths would outnumber births, and hence population growth due to natural increase would cease. From this point onwards, positive net migration would be the only population growth factor. However, from 2035 this positive net migration would no longer counterbalance the negative natural change, and the population is projected to begin to fall.

The EU27 population is also projected to continue to grow older, with the share of the population aged 65 years and over rising from 17.1 percent in 2008 to 30 percent in 2060, and those aged 80 and over rising from 4.4 percent to 12.1 percent over the same period.

There are projected to be considerable differences between the individual member states. Between 2008 and 2060, the population is projected to rise in 13 member states and fall in 14. In Malta, the population is expected to fall by 1.4 per cent.

The EU27 population is projected to become older throughout the projection period, due in particular to persistently low fertility and an increasing number of survivors to higher ages. This ageing process would occur in all member states. In 2060, the share of the population aged 65 or more is projected to range from 23.6 percent in Luxembourg, 24.7 percent in the United Kingdom and 25 percent in Denmark to 36.2 percent in Poland, 36.1 percent in Slovakia and 35.0 percent in Romania. Malta will have 32.4 per cent of its people who will be 65 or older.

In consequence, the old age dependency ratio in the EU27 - the population aged 65 years and older divided by the working age population, is projected to increase from 25 percent in 2008 to 53 percent in 2060.

In other words, there will be only two persons of working age for every person aged 65 or more in 2060, compared with four persons to one today.

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