Violence between neighbouring Georgia and Russia has raised Turkey's hopes of becoming an energy transit hub for European energy supplies. However, Ankara must prove it has the muscle to provide infallible security.

Oil markets were shaken earlier in August by Russia's military thrust onto Georgian soil, through which the €2.7 billion Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline runs, as well as a 10-day fire in eastern Turkey that originally stopped the flow on the line that provides one per cent of world oil supplies from the Caspian basin.

Analysts say the violence in Georgia, which included the bombing of military installations, proves the need to divert energy dependence from a resurgent Russia, which showed Ukraine in 2006 that it is ready to flex its muscles to deal with political disputes.

That may help realise European Union candidate and Nato-member Turkey's hopes of becoming a regional energy hub, attracting pipeline and other energy infrastructure investment, while billing itself as a reliable friend to the West.

"As far as Turkey goes, this shows Europe the urgency of being less dependent on Russian energy. This concern should help create a more united European energy policy that will work to diversify energy dependence and could in the end strengthen the case for the Nabucco," said Gareth Winrow, Turkey energy security analyst.

Turkey, apart from being the longest transit state of the BTC, is also a member of the six-country Nabucco Consortium that plans to build a pipeline that will bypass Russia, bringing Caspian natural gas supplies to Europe.

The €7.9 billion Nabucco pipeline, aimed at pumping 31 billion cubic metres of gas via Turkey and the Balkans from 2013, was born out of anxiety over Russian supplies when a political dispute between Moscow and Kiev cut exports in 2006.

Russia supplies a quarter of the EU's gas.

But Turkey is also aware that recent developments have strengthened Ankara's hand.

"Projects like the Nabucco that is supported by the European Union and is important from a point of view of supply security will only strengthen Turkey's position," said an official at the Prime Minister's office, speaking on condition of anonymity.

But even if Turkey's hand is strengthened as a reliable transit country, stuck between the Caucasus, Russia and the Middle East, it must also prove that it can guarantee the security of pipelines on its territory.

Responsibility for the explosion and fire in eastern Turkey that stopped the flow of the BTC in early this month was claimed by the separatist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which usually attacks military targets in Turkey.

The group also said in a statement it was planning on carrying out more attacks on economic targets, including pipelines that cross Turkey.

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