A looming state election in Bavaria, a sharp slowdown in the economy and a recovery of the German left could dent popular Chancellor Angela Merkel's political prospects in the run-up to next year's election. Buoyed by a rebound in the German economy over the past few years and a reputation for tough international diplomacy earned during her presidencies of the EU and G8, Merkel is more popular than any chancellor since World War Two, according to polls.

But her personal popularity has failed to feed through to her party, the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), whose support has stagnated at around 36 per cent.

With about 14 months to go until the September 2009 vote, Ms Merkel's CDU remains eight to 10 points ahead of the rival Social Democrats (SPD), the centre-left party whose own struggles have received prominent play in the German media for months.

But with conservative support stuck well below the levels the party enjoyed before the 2005 election, the threat to Ms Merkel and her hopes of a second term is very real. "Overall, the outlook for Ms Merkel is mixed," said Juergen Falter, a political scientist at Mainz University.

The Bavaria vote on September 28 is the immediate challenge for Ms Merkel and her conservative camp.

The CDU's sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), has ruled the southern state with an absolute majority for nearly half a century.

However, polls indicate the CSU may fall short of the 50 per cent mark for the first time in nearly half a century - a result which would be nothing short of a political earthquake in one of Germany's biggest and wealthiest states.

"That would be very symbolic - it would boost the SPD and be very negative news for the CDU," said Mr Falter. Ms Merkel relies on CSU support for power, and big losses in Bavaria would probably lead to recriminations and sniping among conservatives over strategy.

"The conservatives can only be strong if the CSU is strong in Bavaria," Ms Merkel told CSU party members.

Her fortunes also hinge on those of the SPD who have been in disarray for months following an internal row over whether to cooperate with a far-left party. SPD leader Kurt Beck has seen his personal ratings slide and it looks doubtful he will run against Ms Merkel.

Instead, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, whose popularity in the polls is second only to Ms Merkel's, looks set to emerge as her challenger later this year - a move analysts say could give the SPD a much-needed lift.