Big crowd, modest plans at French Med Union launch

French President Nicolas Sarkozy hosts an impressive line-up of Middle Eastern leaders tomorrow for the launch of his Mediterranean Union project, but the results will be modest compared to his original blueprint.

The location of the organisation's secretariat is open. France had suggested Tunis, which raised protests over Tunisia's rights record. Morocco and Malta are also candidates, French diplomats say, with some suggesting Barcelona as a compromise.

Arab leaders including Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have agreed to sit in the same room as Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for the event, to which all the countries that line the Mediterranean and all European Union member states were invited.

Bringing together such a diverse group may bolster Mr Sarkozy's claim to being a potential peace broker in the Middle East, but it will be hard to overlook the fact that his pet project has been heavily watered down, leaving little of substance.

"Bringing such an impressive crowd together is already an exploit, so one can say that the medium is the message," said Dominique Moisi, special adviser to the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), a think-tank.

"But then beyond the meeting itself, there is what we can expect of it. And there we must be extremely cautious," he said, adding: "The results risk being extraordinarily weak."

Shortly after his election last year, Mr Sarkozy outlined his plan for a "great dream of peace and a great dream of civilisation" that would unite the sea's motley crew of residents in one EU-inspired institution.

But he did not consult with some key allies beforehand. His idea of an EU-funded club that did not include EU states without a Mediterranean coast angered Germany in particular, which led the charge in the 27-nation bloc to force Paris to back down.

France's plans were scaled back, dropping proposals for a "Mediterranean investment bank" and EU-style ministerial meetings, and incorporating the project into the existing Euro-Mediterranean partnership, known as the Barcelona process.

What is left is a handful of projects such as cleaning up the sea's waters, working on land and maritime "highways", developing solar energy and student exchanges, with members free to work on each project if they choose.

"This has been poorly conceived and badly presented. The policy substance is vague to the point of being non-existent," said Michael Emerson, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, echoing criticism from some southern states such as Algeria.

Out of the 44 nations invited on the eve of Bastille Day, the only leaders French officials say will not come are Libya's Muammar Gaddafi, an outspoken critic of the plan, and Jordan's King Abdullah, who said he could not come for personal reasons.

Despite early tension over whether the project was aimed at offering Turkey an alternative to EU membership, a senior Turkish source said this week Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan hoped to come. But it is unclear if he will warm to the plan. There are plenty of other sources of disagreement.

Arab countries are trying to add a phrase in the summit's final declaration on seeking a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction - a reference to the nuclear arsenal Israel is widely believed to possess but which it neither confirms nor denies the existence of - according to a draft seen by Reuters.

A Sarkozy aide had said Mr Olmert and Mr Assad might meet on the sidelines, which would be a major step up from the current indirect peace talks, but officials now say it is unlikely. One added that there would not even be an official group picture.

Many basic decisions may not even be reached tomorrow, and some remain suspicious over what France's real motives are.

France and Egypt should be the first co-presidents, but whether France's stint should rotate every two years like Egypt's or every six months with the EU presidency is unclear.

Factbox - Key facts about the summit and the project

Members

Membership of the project is open to all the states that border the Mediterranean, all members of the EU and some others.

The French Foreign Ministry says France has invited Albania, Algeria, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Britain, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jordan, Latvia, Lebanon, Libya, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mauritania, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco, the Netherlands, the Palestinian Authority, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. France says "virtually all" those invited have said they will send their head of state or government. The only leaders who are not expected to come are Libya's Muammar Gaddafi, a vocal critic of the project, and Jordan's King Abdullah, who said he could not come for personal reasons.

Schedule

The summit will be held tomorrow, the eve of Bastille Day, France's national holiday, at the Grand Palais, a glass-roofed hall built for the Paris Exhibition of 1900. All leaders attending the summit are invited to the Bastille Day military parade the next day.

On the day of the summit, heads of state and government will meet in the afternoon, when they are expected to approve a joint declaration outlining the project and its aims.

Foreign ministers will meet in the morning to make the final changes to the declaration. Senior officials will meet the day before to lay the groundwork for the foreign ministers' meeting.

Projects

One of the main aims of the Mediterranean Union, which carries the official name "The Barcelona Process: Union for the Mediterranean", is to work on a series of practical projects, with each member state free to work on a project if it chooses.

These projects, outlined in an annex to the draft joint declaration obtained by Reuters, are

• de-pollution of the Mediterranean - cleaning up the sea's waters and coastal areas, focusing on the "water and waste sector";

• sea and land "highways", improving connections between ports and supporting the creation of coastal motorways, possibly including a trans-Maghreb motorway linking countries on the sea's southern shore;

• civil protection - cooperating on the prevention, preparation and response to natural and man-made disasters;

• alternative energy - exploring the feasibility of a "Mediterranean Solar Plan" to develop solar power as an energy source, and supporting research and development into energy sources other than oil and gas.