Can the EU be revived?
France takes over the EU presidency with a loaded agenda, which includes trying to find a solution to Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon Treaty, convincing the presidents of Poland and the Czech Republic to sign the treaty, presiding over the creation...
France takes over the EU presidency with a loaded agenda, which includes trying to find a solution to Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon Treaty, convincing the presidents of Poland and the Czech Republic to sign the treaty, presiding over the creation of the Union for the Mediterranean, working on an energy and climate change deal, aiming at a more integrated European defence policy in return for re-joining Nato's military wing, reviewing the EU's farm policy, finding a solution to the fuel crisis and reaching an EU-wide pact on immigration.
These are ambitious goals and France's super-energetic Nicolas Sarkozy is probably well-placed to achieve them and revive the EU after the disappointing Irish referendum result. Sarkozy's initial presidency priorities, however, did not include salvaging the Lisbon Treaty, which will now no doubt take a lot of his time and energy, as nobody expected the Irish to vote 'No'.
The Irish government has to report back to EU leaders at their October summit on the way forward for Lisbon, but there is no guarantee that a solution will be found by then or by the December summit. The best Sarkozy can do is forge a consensus among the 27-member bloc on the way forward - he has proved to be good at brokering deals and loves to take on difficult political challenges.
Another Irish referendum - with a protocol annexed to the treaty on issues such as abortion, neutrality and taxation - is a possible way out but there is no guarantee that voters will approve the Lisbon project the second time round.
Sarkozy also has the additional challenge of persuading the Polish and Czech presidents, Lech Kaczynski and Vaclav Klaus, to sign the Lisbon Treaty. Mr Kaczynski recently said that it would be "pointless" to ratify the Lisbon Treaty after the Irish vote. This puts him at odds with his Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, who fully supports the treaty, and the country's Parliament, which overwhelmingly approved it.
Klaus, on the other hand, has said the Lisbon Treaty is dead and called the Irish referendum result a "victory of freedom and reason", adding that "ratification cannot continue". In the meantime, the Czech constitutional court is studying the treaty to determine its compatibility with Czech law, which could prove another headache for Sarkozy if it rules that it is not compatible.
Climate change presents a huge challenge to Sarkozy and an agreement on this issue, together with a deal on the Lisbon Treaty, would be a huge achievement. The goal is get EU leaders to agree on cutting CO2 emissions and boosting the use of renewable energy by the December summit. If no such deal is reached, the European Parliament would not be able to approve any package before it is dissolved ahead of the European parliamentary elections in June 2009, which means the EU is unlikely to have a common position at the December 2009 Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, which is meant to come up with a new protocol to replace the Kyoto Agreement.
A European immigration pact, something which Malta is certainly in favour of, is another priority for the French presidency. Such a pact would be based on three pillars: the refusal of 'en masse' regularisations (such as what took place in Spain), a harmonisation of asylum policies and rules for the return of illegal immigrants.
There is probably a good basis for an agreement on this issue but Sarkozy's proposals on the return of illegal immigrants might be watered down due to objections from some member states.
The Union for the Mediterranean, which in reality is nothing more than a revamping and strengthening of the Euro-Med Barcelona Process, is to be launched shortly in Paris. Originally designed to be a union of EU Mediterranean states and the countries of the southern Mediterranean, it was soon expanded to include all EU member states after protests - understandably so - by the northern EU countries. One hopes that this Mediterranean Union will not be held hostage to precarious situations in the Middle East, just as the Barcelona Process was.
France's plans for a more integrated European defence structure, have, I believe, a reasonable chance of success as long as countries such as Britain are convinced that this will not come about at the expense of Nato being the main pillar of defence and security in Europe. On the other hand, the French must be careful to respect the military neutrality of certain EU member states, such as Ireland, which rejected the Lisbon Treaty, and Malta, Sweden, Finland and Austria.
A debate on the European Commission's proposals to reform the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) - which accounts for nearly half the bloc's budget - is to be held under the French presidency. It is highly likely that no radical change in this sector will come about during the next six months as French farmers benefit greatly from the CAP.
The current global food crisis will probably be cited as a reason not to overhaul the system. French Agriculture Minister Michel Barnier recently stated: "What we are witnessing in the world is the consequence of too much free market liberalism. We can't leave feeding people to the mercy of the market."
We can also expect the French presidency to propose an EU-wide VAT fuel cut, to deal with the present fuel crisis - which many member states oppose, to promote nuclear energy as an important energy source and to propose increased regulation over financial institutions. An EU-China summit is scheduled during the French presidency and Sarkozy also has the task of establishing the EU's relationship with America's new President in November.
A tall order indeed, but Sarkozy is probably the right person at the right time to make a success of this presidency.