Death by the Nile

In Agatha Christie's innocent world, people usually die by being poisoned, knifed, shot or bludgeoned, courtesy of a loved one. Ah, what a world we have lost.

Then, to be near the Nile was a romance. The gravest risk one ran was being murdered for one's inheritance while gently cruising down the noble river in a Panama hat. Today, it is the river that rises up to get you.

And rising it is, a mass killer on the make, threatening to carry away 10 per cent of Egypt's population, living around its delta.

Your TV screens may have brought home to you flooding in Bangladesh and the Far East. We tend to think of climate change as affecting us in the abstract. But nearby Egypt is the third most vulnerable country to the consequences of global warming.

Nor is the Nile just a lone, rogue river in the region. Mediterranean cities around important rivers like the Rhone and Po are also at risk.

Then there are the coastal cities, like Alexandria, which risks completely disappearing under water. Less apocalyptically, and more probable, is that sea levels may rise by 50 centimetres by 2050 - in which case 30 per cent of the city will disappear and some 200,000 jobs will be lost. Calculations can show wide variation. But no one doubts that sea levels are rising, with consequent beach erosion and risk to the hotels situated within 100 metres. The Tunisian government, which is taking a strong interest in mitigating the effects of climate change, is aware that some hotels in Jerba might over the next few decades find themselves without a natural beach.

And that is not to mention the increased risk of storms, high waves, killer heat waves and drops in water supplies. They threaten not just the environment of the local populations but also the economies.

And it is not just theoretical. In sub-Saharan Africa, it is reckoned that some of the conflicts and displacements may be attributed to droughts or floods traceable back to climate change. Experts highlight Darfur, Somalia and Ethiopia. What a coincidence: Isn't that where many of our irregular immigrants come from?

There is a point to discussing climate change in a week when our water and electricity bills have risen and when we know that if $140+ per barrel seems giddily high now, it will seem low when the $200 mark is reached by end-2008.

The price of oil is being pushed up by rising global demand and, naturally, we tend to look at the major suspects, the booming economies of China and India.

The southern Mediterranean economy is the second most sluggish regional economy in the world. But that does not mean demand is not rising there, either. In 15 years, it is estimated that the region's coastal population will grow by almost 30 per cent; the density will triple on the southern and eastern shores. Power plants on the coast are expected to go up from 200 now to 360 while there will be 175 new desalination plants.

The implications for Maltese tourism, industry and fuel costs need to be seen within this regional perspective. Before we even think about what we can do, business leaders need to focus on the pressures building up.

We need not be prisoners of our fate. Tunisia has managed to stabilise demand for water. Libya could be in a position to export solar energy to the whole of Europe. And Malta?

Beyond international diplomacy and the environment, both necessary, we need to focus on the regional economic angle, too.

Hence, the Academy for the Development of a Democratic Environment (Ażad) and the Centre for European Studies (Brussels) will be holding a seminar on Climate Change And Regional Economic Development.

The speakers will include experts from Blue Plan, the organisation responsible for the admirable strategy for sustainable development in the Mediterranean, and the European Commission. Their panel will be concerned with stocktaking of the Mediterranean and sub-Saharan regions. The audience can confront their assessments with Minister George Pullicino's; he, too, will be there.

A second panel will discuss strategies for European partnership with the Mediterranean and Africa. Simon Busuttil is the European Parliament's rapporteur on immigration. Franck Debié is director general of the Fondation pour l'Innovation Politique, a Parisian think-tank. Klaus Liepert is head for sub-Saharan Africa development projects of the German Hanns Seidel Stiftung.

Through the discussion and networking, some things may become clearer; especially how Maltese businesses and non-profit organisations may act, separately and in tandem, to ensure the sustainable development of the region and, thus, the economic future of Malta.

The seminar will be held on July 11 at the Hotel Phoenicia, from 9 a.m. to 12.30 p.m. Entry is free on a first-come-first-served basis. For reservations and more information, contact Ażad on 2124 7515 or via e-mail admin@azad-malta.com.

The writer is chairman of Ażad, the academy for the development of a democratic environment.

ranierfsadni@europe.com