Global emissions framework

G8 leaders have a 50-50 chance of agreeing next week on a global goal of halving greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century, a Japanese foreign ministry official said, adding that failure could hurt-led climate talks.

Leaders meet for the July 7-9 Group of Eight summit in Hokkaido, northern Japan, and Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda hopes to build momentum for talks on a global emissions framework before the Kyoto Protocol's first phase ends in 2012.

Mr Fukuda also needs a diplomatic success to bolster his weak ratings at home, where speculation persists that his party might try to replace him before an election due by late next year.

G8 leaders agreed last year in Heiligendamm, Germany, to seriously consider a global goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50 per cent by 2050.

Climate campaigners say this year's summit should go further by endorsing that goal and linking it to bold shorter-term targets for developed countries.

But divisions among the US, Europe and Japan have raised doubts about how much the leaders can achieve next week.

"You need the leaders to exert a robust political message to the world which will be driving progress in the UN negotiations," Koji Tsuruoka, director-general for global issues at Japan's foreign ministry, told Reuters in an interview.

Mr Tsuruoka said a G8 failure to act would unintentionally send a negative message to the UN negotiations.

"The stakes are very high," he said, adding that the chances of agreement were 50-50.

"Of course, the G8 will act responsibly by trying to move beyond the G8 understanding at Heiligendamm," he said. "Whether that's achievable or not depends on how the leaders will conduct discussions in Hokkaido."

Last December, 190 countries agreed in Bali on a two-year UN-led negotiating process to forge a successor to the first phase of the Kyoto Protocol on cutting carbon emissions.