Tsvangirai's risky gamble needs regional backing

Zimbabwe's Morgan Tsvangirai has gambled his political career by pulling out of an election run-off and he must now count on regional action as well as sympathy to have a hope of unseating President Robert Mugabe.

In a free election, the opposition leader would have been well placed to win next Friday's vote after beating Mr Mugabe in the first round, but he announced on Sunday that political violence made a fair ballot impossible.

The announcement was hedged though - with a plea to Africa and the world to intervene in the crisis. He also spoke of the need to work on a transition of power away from Mr Mugabe, who has ruled since 1980, suggesting a readiness for negotiations.

"It is a bold statement, but he does appear to be leaving his options open. This sounds like a provisional pull-out," said Brian Raftopolous, a political analyst with the Zimbabwe Institute.

Mr Tsvangirai, a fiery 56-year-old former trade unionist, always knew the run-off would be difficult and only reluctantly agreed to take part.

His Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) said he won the outright majority needed on March 29 to avoid a second round of voting, but agreed to go along to avoid granting automatic victory to Mr Mugabe, 84.

At first sight, giving up now would have the same result.

But the picture has changed.

African countries have joined Mr Mugabe's Western critics in voicing anger at poll violence - the opposition says 86 supporters have been killed. Not long ago, regional states sat silent and gave tacit backing to Mugabe, seen by many as a hero of the struggle for independence.

The government blames Mr Tsvangirai's followers for the violence but the region has certainly not taken up that line.

In fact, southern African states show growing impatience with Mr Mugabe and fear total meltdown in Zimbabwe.

The crisis has driven millions of Zimbabweans into their countries, straining economies and creating tensions even in powerhouse South Africa - where xenophobic violence exploded last month.

Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, also chairman of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), showed understanding for Mr Tsvangirai after the withdrawal.

"Elections held in such an environment will not only be undemocratic but will also bring embarrassment to the SADC region and the entire continent of Africa," he said.

But Mr Tsvangirai will need action as well as words from regional leaders if his gamble is not to backfire. The US and former colonial power Britain have little leverage.

"There is not a huge amount (regional leaders) can do. What Mr Mugabe has stressed since the year dot is sovereignty. Part of that is directed against Western colonial interests, but it can be as effectively directed against regional leaders," said Tom Cargill of Britain's Chatham House thinktank.

Most important will be the role of South Africa.

President Thabo Mbeki has never shown much fondness for Mr Mr Tsvangirai, while the Zimbabwean opposition leader has openly criticised Mr Mbeki's role as mediator in the crisis.

But the MDC leader has a better relationship with the increasingly influential Jacob Zuma, head of South Africa's ruling African National Congress, who shares his humble roots. Mr Tsvangirai is the self-taught son of a bricklayer who worked his way up through the union movement.

By withdrawing, Mr Tsvangirai could also be moving towards a plan Mr Mbeki has been said to favour by South Africa's press - calling off the election to allow a national unity government.

Mr Mbeki was quick to say that South Africa would try to persuade Mr Mugabe and Mr Tsvangirai to meet to discuss the crisis.

"...that most certainly is what we would try to encourage," Mr Mbeki said after Mr Tsvangirai's announcement.

Until now, prospects for such talks appeared limited. Neither side trusted the other to head an interim administration. Both believed they could win the vote - by whatever means.

Now regional pressure could make a difference in getting Mr Mugabe to the table. He is undoubtedly in a weaker position than before the March 29 elections, when his party also lost its parliamentary majority. Without a contested run-off, even a flawed one, his legitimacy could be more uncertain.

"With the MDC withdrawing, I think it is back to negotiations," said Susan Booysen, a political analyst at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg.

Such negotiations could test Mr Tsvangirai to the full. His party has suffered deep internal divisions in the past - some over questions of his judgment and style - although differences have been patched up for now.

Mr Tsvangirai has made his name as the only person who has come close to ending Mugabe's rule.

But the ruling ZANU-PF party and the generals fighting behind Mr Mugabe are known for their political nous as well as a readiness to use whatever means necessary to avoid losing their 28-year grip on power.

Factbox on accusations in Zimbabwe's election

Some of the main complaints that had been made ahead of the contest between Mr Tsvangirai, who won a first round vote on March 29, and President Robert Mugabe.

Violence: Opposition leader Mr Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) says at least 86 of its followers have been killed by supporters of Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF party.

Thousands more people have been beaten up and their homes have been torched. Violence has been widespread, but particularly prevalent in former ruling party strongholds where the opposition did well in the March 29 general election.

The opposition said armed Mr Mugabe's supporters assaulted MDC members trying to hold a rally on Sunday, but the government said that was untrue and suggested it could have been a set-up.

Western countries and human rights groups also say Mr Mugabe's supporters are behind the violence, but the government says the opposition is to blame.

Arrests: Mr Tsvangirai was detained five times during his campaigning and his campaign vehicles were impounded. Mr Tsvangirai's lieutenant, Tendai Biti, was arrested and faces treason charges over the early announcement of results from the first round of the election.

Police say they have arrested at least 390 opposition supporters and 156 members of the ruling party over election violence, blaming the opposition for most of the trouble.

Manipulating figures: The opposition charged that figures from the first round of voting were manipulated by the electoral commission to deny Mr Tsvangirai outright victory. Although he beat Mr Mugabe, he fell short of the absolute majority he would have needed to avoid the run-off, according to the official figures.

Aid: Foreign aid agencies were banned from working ahead of the election despite widespread food shortages in the country, which is suffering from economic collapse. The opposition and human rights groups accused the government of using access to food as a weapon to try to sway the election. The government said it was the aid agencies that were using food to persuade people to vote against Mr Mugabe. They denied that.

Media: The opposition accuses state controlled media of banning coverage of Mr Tsvangirai's campaign and refusing to carry his broadcasts.

Observers: A number from Western countries critical of Mr Mugabe were barred from both the first round of voting and the presidential election run-off. The main observer mission was to be from the southern African regional bloc SADC. It had been due to send some 380 observers. African observers in Zimbabwe have been critical of the violence and had voiced doubts over whether it was possible to hold a fair election.

The government slashed the number of local observers permitted from 9,000 - about enough to monitor every polling station - to 500 for the presidential election run-off.