Irish Prime Minister: We will win EU treaty vote

Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen predicted that Irish voters would say "Yes" in tomorrow's referendum on the EU reform treaty, after two opinion polls pointed to a close race.

Ireland votes in the only referendum on the treaty in an EU state, meaning that a country accounting for less than one per cent of the bloc's 490 million population could derail a pact designed to reform how it is run.

"I believe we are going to win this referendum," Mr Cowen told reporters. "I think we are going to win it because more and more people are coming to the conclusion that this is in Ireland's interests."

Latest polls indicate the "No" camp is building support. One survey in the Irish Times last week put opponents of the Lisbon Treaty ahead for the first time.

The findings have caused consternation in Brussels, where policy chiefs are anxious to implement a treaty that must be ratified by all member states and replaces a constitution rejected by French and Dutch voters in 2005.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner became the latest senior official to call for a "Yes" vote.

"I think that the first victim of a potential 'No', which I don't want to envisage, would be the Irish," he told France's RTL radio, adding that Ireland had "counted greatly on European money" in the past.

The Irish government says a "No" vote would hit the economy and Dublin's diplomatic clout because neighbours would see it as a snub for an EU that did much to underpin Ireland's "Celtic Tiger" boom.

Mr Cowen was flanked at Monday's news conference by the leaders of Ireland's two main opposition parties.

"This political initiative today of the three major parties... sends out a clear, coherent strong message," Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny said. "This is about your country, this is a really crucial decision."

Opinion polls suggest Fine Gael and Labour are struggling to convince their supporters to set aside dislike of Mr Cowen's Fianna Fail party and fall in behind the government's "Yes" call.

"We have to step outside the normal party political issues that divide us," Labour leader Eamon Gilmore said.

Opposition to the treaty, which will create a long-term President of the European Council of EU leaders and a stronger foreign policy chief and overhaul how policy is formed, has come from a disparate range of interest groups.

Mr Cowen accused the "No" camp of spreading "confusion and fear".

"(The treaty) is a fair and honourable compromise," he said. "None of our red lines are crossed - we retain our position on taxation, we don't have any changes on security and defence."

Irish business overwhelmingly favours a "Yes" vote because it believes the pact will further reduce trade barriers and safeguard investor confidence.

Most Irish political parties, a powerful farming lobby and the congress of trade unions also back the treaty.

The government has warned of dire economic consequences if the treaty is rejected but analysts said previous EU agreements had been easier to sell as they offered something tangible like the euro or eastward enlargement of the bloc.

Nevertheless he feels Irish firms would gain from the treaty because it would help overcome trade barriers in areas such as transport, telecommunications and energy.

"If the Lisbon Treaty is ratified, I think it will give the commission the strength to take on some of the protectionist policies that still exist," analysts remarked, pointing to the market for services as an area where major hurdles still exist.

Aviation entrepreneur Ulick McEvaddy, the most prominent businessman in the "No" camp, calls the treaty a "Kremlinesque" document and compares it to the act which united Britain and Ireland from 1801.

"We had famine, we had double wars ... we had civil war, we had (conflict in) Northern Ireland for 30 years," Mr McEvaddy told Reuters. "I would be very cautious about anything we do that would imperil, if you like, our sovereignty."

But most in Irish business beg to differ, pointing out that modern Ireland's open economy relies strongly on exports and its recent transformation from a poor agrarian society into one of Europe's richest owes a lot to European Union funds.

It has also been driven by investment from multinational companies, attracted in part by Ireland's status as a keenly pro-European, English speaking member of the euro zone.

The American Chamber of Commerce in Ireland, whose members include Google, Pfizer and Intel, says a "Yes" vote would position Ireland at the heart of a streamlined EU, helping Irish and multinational companies alike.

Nine out of 10 Dublin-based economists polled by Reuters last week said a "Yes" vote would be the best result for future prosperity, helping to safeguard investor confidence.

Opponents fear the treaty will allow the EU to force Ireland to raise its attractively low 12.5 percent rate of corporation tax and transfer authority over foreign investment to Brussels.

Factbox: Scenarios after Ireland's vote on the EU treaty

Here are the possible scenarios after a Red C/Sunday Business Post poll showed 39 per cent of people intend to vote "No" against 42 per cent planning to vote "Yes". Another poll two days earlier gave the "No" camp a slim lead.

A "yes vote" would mean:

• A huge collective sigh of relief among the 26 other national governments who have already given the reforms their blessing and who would now expect to complete the process of ratification by parliament with few problems.

• An end to more than a decade of wrangling over the bloc's structures, and a new blueprint for what treaty backers say will be a stronger, more efficient EU ready and able to take in even more members.

• The green light for the incoming French presidency of the EU to mediate the horse-trading over who will get the new jobs created by the treaty - a long-term EU President and a stronger foreign policy chief with a real diplomatic service.

A "no vote" could mean:

• A new crisis of confidence within the bloc over its inability to be attractive to electors, and stagnation in Brussels as the European Commission and other Brussels-based institutions shy away from bold new initiatives.

• New calls for a hard core of integration-minded states to press ahead without the laggards.

• Britain and others deciding to suspend parliamentary ratification, leaving the EU to soldier on with its cumbersome decision-making system, a dysfunctional foreign policy apparatus and an inefficient rotating presidency.

• A second referendum in Ireland to try to get a "Yes" out of voters. However, analysts are deeply sceptical as to whether such a move would work again as it did in late 2002 when Ireland passed the Treaty of Nice, meant to adapt the EU for eastward enlargement, at the second time of asking.