Could Obama become first black US President?

Barack Obama's nomination as the US Democratic party's candidate for presidency is indeed an extraordinary development. Not only is Obama the first black politician to do extremely well in the primary elections; he is also the first African-American nominee for the presidency of the United States, an amazing (and welcome) fact considering that he was born at a time when segregation and discrimination against blacks was rampant in many parts of the US. He can now make history by becoming the first black president of the US if he wins the election in November.

The nomination process was long and drawn out and was only clinched last week when the last two primaries were held in Montana, won by Obama, and South Dakota, won by Hillary Clinton. Obama won 2,154 delegates compared to 1,919 for Clinton. So the election was extremely close, and even though many observers had urged Clinton to withdraw from the race earlier, she was determined to fight to the very end.

It is now clear that Obama cannot win against Republican candidate John McCain unless he has the full support of Clinton, who has already made it clear that she will back him. Clinton has said she will do whatever she can to elect a Democrat to the White House: "This has been a long and hard-fought campaign, but as I have always said, my differences with Obama are small compared to those with Senator McCain and the Republicans."

Obama was equally conciliatory: "Whatever differences exist between me and Hillary, they pale into insignificance in comparison with those that exist between us and the other side." He added: "When we finally win the battle for universal healthcare in this country, she (Clinton) will be central to that victory." So it is clear that Obama sees a leading role for Clinton in the campaign against McCain. The question, of course, is what price will Clinton demand for her unequivocal support?

One obvious possibility is a 'dream ticket' of Obama and Clinton as his running mate, which would go a long way towards healing the divisions in the Democratic party. Clinton has said she is "open" to the idea of being the vice-presidential candidate but is not seeking such a position.

It would not be the first time a presidential candidate appointed his main rival as his running mate. John F. Kennedy appointed Lyndon Johnson in 1960 and Ronald Reagan chose George Bush Sr in 1980. Both tickets won the presidential elections they contested.

When choosing a vice-presidential candidate a nominee usually tries to balance the ticket. If the nominee is a Conservative, then he might choose a Liberal as his running mate, or vice-versa. If he is from the north-east or the west he could go for a southerner for the number two spot, or vice-versa.

Sometimes a running mate could be chosen on the basis of his home state if it has a large number of electoral college votes or if it is a potential swing state for that party.

Perhaps most crucially, and this would definitely be the case with Clinton, a vice-presidential candidate could be chosen due to his/her electoral appeal to certain important sectors of the electorate. In the primaries Obama did not perform well among white blue collar workers or Hispanics, two large important voter blocs who voted for Clinton and without whose support no Democrat can enter the White House.

Even if Clinton is not vice-presidential candidate - she may be offered the post of Secretary of Health or Senate majority leader, where she could exercise tremendous power and political influence - it is crucial that she campaigns for Obama, especially among those voters who supported her presidential bid.

Obama does not only have to unite the Democratic party and heal the wounds of the past five months. He now has to convince Americans that he is the better candidate. It will not be easy. Although US President George Bush's popularity ratings are at an all-time low, McCain is not Bush and he has had a number of differences with the White House over the last eight years. He also does very well among independent voters, who ultimately decide the outcome of elections.

Furthermore, the Republicans will no doubt exploit Clinton's criticism of Obama during the primaries, as well as the Democratic candidate's inexperience, especially in international relations, and his somewhat populist economic policies, such as on free trade.

Moreover, they will take advantage of the fact that for many Americans, Obama remains somewhat of a mystery - a recent poll, for example, suggested that 15 per cent of voters believe he is a Muslim.

Of course, this should be the Democrats' year. The massive turnout of Democratic voters during the primaries suggests Americans are yearning for change after eight years of Bush. The economy is performing badly and the war in Iraq is dragging on (although the situation has improved slightly).

Obama has been labelled as the new JFK: he has the looks, charisma and rhetoric and seems to symbolise the change that so many Americans say they now want after two Republican presidential victories. He could yet pull it off and that would be an extraordinary accomplishment.