EU Treaty in peril as Irish "No" camp surges ahead

Ireland could derail the European Union reform treaty in a referendum next week in which a new opinion poll shows voters will reject it.

A "No" vote in the only EU country holding a referendum would mean a state accounting for less than 1 percent of the bloc's 490 million population could sink the replacement for a constitution rejected by French and Dutch voters in 2005.

"Government faces treaty catastrophe" was the Irish Examiner newspaper's prediction in its front page headline as Ireland's Prime Minister Brian Cowen prepares for the June 12 vote.

A TNS/mrbi poll published in Friday's Irish Times showed opponents of the pact had doubled their support in the last three weeks, overtaking the "Yes" camp for the first time as opposition among working class voters surged.

The survey of 1,000 voters conducted across Ireland showed 35 percent intended to vote "No", up from 17 percent in the last TNS/mrbi poll three weeks ago. The "Yes" camp stood at 30 percent, down from 35 percent in the previous poll.

"I simply hope it will serve as a wake-up call and will consolidate the "Yes" vote and that people will realise just how serious this is," Lucinda Creighton, spokeswoman on Europe for the main opposition Fine Gael party, told RTE radio.

Leaders in the 27-nation EU have been fervently hoping for an Irish "Yes" vote, which would hasten parliamentary ratification elsewhere and help resolve years of wrangling over the bloc's structures.

The EU Commission urged the Irish to exercise their right to vote and made no comment on the new opinion poll. The Irish vote is critical because all EU member states need to ratify the treaty for it to come into force.