Ryanair profit up but warns of oil pain ahead

Ryanair posted a 20 per cent rise in adjusted full-year net profit yesterday but warned if oil prices stay at around €83.2 a barrel it would expect to only break even in the year ahead.

Net profit excluding one-off items rose to €480.9 million in the 12 months to the end of March versus €401.4 million a year earlier and the 474.7 million average of 18 analysts' forecasts on Reuters Estimates.

Europe's biggest low-cost carrier said, however, its unadjusted net profit fell to €390.7 million from €435.6 million a year earlier once it had included exceptional items, including a €91.6 million write down in the value of its stake in Irish rival Aer Lingus. Ryanair said it was better placed than all other European airlines to absorb higher oil costs, even if it means profits fall in the short term.

"Based on forward bookings, we now believe it likely that average fares for the coming year will rise by approximately five per cent and if oil prices remain at €82.2 per barrel, then we expect to accordingly breakeven for fiscal '09," chief executive officer Michael O'Leary said in a statement.

The airline had previously said it expected a six per cent rise in net profit this year at best, although its worst-case scenario had been for a 50 per cent drop.

Ryanair, which said last month its fuel needs were mostly unhedged for the current year, predicted oil would become cheaper over the medium term, helping its earnings rebound strongly, but it was not sure when this would happen.

"Higher oil prices will increase the attraction of Ryanair's guaranteed lowest fares, as consumers become more price sensitive, as competitors increase fares and fuel surcharges, and as many European airlines consolidate or go bust, a development which we believe is inevitable if oil prices remain above €64 this winter," Mr O'Leary said.