Modest opportunity for change in Russia

Russia's new President Dmitry Medvedev took office on Wednesday replacing Vladimir Putin, who has now become Prime Minister. The only reason Mr Putin stood down was because the Russian constitution specifically prevents someone from being President for more than two terms in a row.

There is real concern, both within Russia and the international community, that Mr Putin will remain the de facto leader of the country, and that power will be slowly transferred from the presidency to the office of the prime minister. After all, it was Putin who handpicked Medvedev to succeed him and the first thing the new President did was appoint Putin prime minister.

Even though it looks unlikely that Russian foreign and domestic policy will change under President Medvedev, at least for the moment, the international community should take this opportunity to enter into a fresh dialogue with the new head of state. After all, Medvedev is the first Russian president to come from outside the Community Party, so the potential for a new beginning, and perhaps for a thaw in relations between Moscow and the West does exist.

There is a clear need for both sides to review their relationship, which has steadily worsened over the years. The peak of this 'new Cold War' came in a speech by Putin at a Munich security conference last February when he lambasted the West and accused President George Bush of trying to establish a unipolar world. "One single centre of power. One single centre of force. One single centre of decision-making. This is the world of one master, one sovereign," Putin had said.

Over the past few years, the world has looked helplessly on as the Russian government turned increasingly authoritarian, further straining relations between Moscow and Europe and the US. In foreign policy, Russia viewed America's anti-missile defence plans in Poland and the Czech Republic with open hostility and Moscow opposed Nato expansion.

The decision by the US and most EU countries to recognise Kosovo infuriated the Russians and there are clear differences between the two sides over Iran and Iraq. Relations between Russia and Britain, for example, are at their worst in many years after the poisoning of former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko in London.

Russia is an important nuclear power, a military superpower, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, an economic powerhouse with vast oil and gas reserves and a key player on the world stage. Together with the US and the EU, it can play a key role in tackling a vast number of issues, such as the fight against terrorism, climate change, nuclear proliferation, the Middle East peace process, peace and stability in Europe and dealing with North Korea and Iran, to name a few. So it is in everybody's interest for a meaningful and constructive relationship to exist with Russia.

However, this does not mean that the west should be naive when dealing with Moscow, nor does it mean that maintaining good relations with Russia should be done at the expense of ignoring the erosion of civil liberties in Russia and unacceptable international behaviour. What is does mean is that the new Russian presidency offers a slight possibility of a new chapter in relations with the west and of the strengthening of Russian citizens' rights. Consequently Europe and the US must take advantage of this opportunity, however modest, and reach out to Medvedev.

The truth is that although Putin is likely to remain Russia's real leader for the moment, nobody knows just how long this situation is likely to last. Perhaps Medvedev will slowly accumulate power and authority and eventually replace Putin as the real power in Russia. The world will just have to wait and see how this unique political partnership will work out in practice.

During his swearing-in ceremony Medvedev promised to promote the rule of law, definitely a step in the right - as long as he puts his words into action - and the West should support him in this regard. Medvedev also said: "I consider my most important task to be further developing civil and economic freedoms, creating new and the broadest opportunities for the self-fulfilment of citizens." So this trend should certainly be supported by the international community.

On foreign policy he has not really hinted at a new direction but perhaps it is still too early for such a change in course. A gesture from Moscow, however, would be appreciated - such as an end to its obsessive opposition to Nato expansion or an easing of tensions with Georgia.

What we have had so far is the revival of the Communist-era custom of featuring military hardware in the annual Victory Day parade which marks the defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945. The official Russian explanation for this was that the parade demonstrated that Russia is a serious military force. There is nothing wrong with that, but I wonder if the timing of such a change, two days after Medvedev took office, was wise?