Baulking at the Balkans

We had other things on our mind on March 8, so perhaps not many of us noticed that, on the same day, the governing coalition in Serbia fell apart. The Prime Minister, Vojislav Kostunica, had no alternative but to ask the recently-elected President, Boris Tadic, to dissolve Parliament.

The new elections are to be held this month. They may well prove to be an important test for the US, the EU as well as the UN.

Serbia has come a long way since I first visited in 1977, as vice-president of the University of Malta's Student Representative Council, to attend a student conference on The Third Way. The theme of the conference focused on the non-aligned movement, of which the then Yugoslavia was a major member, that distanced itself from both the communist East and the capitalist West. Most of my fellow conference speakers were extreme leftists who found no contradiction in defending the Third Way by attacking only capitalism. Like the conference, I found Belgrade dullness itself. I was glad to return to Malta.

To speak of Serbia today, however, is to speak of a country that has survived the collapse of its socialist system, the break-up of the former Yugoslavia, more than one war with its neighbours and the arrest of a former President who was subsequently charged with war crimes in The Hague.

Moreover, EU membership is now debated in the country. The government that collapsed in March was made up of a coalition that wanted to take Serbia into the EU - seeing membership as the quickest and most secure road to affluence. The opposition was dominated by the far-right Radical Party that is against membership.

What made the government collapse was a case of what former British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan famously called "Events, dear boy, events". The state of Kosovo, then part of Serbia and considered to be the cradle of Serbia by the Serbs, declared independence on February 17. Since then, the new state has been recognised by some three dozen countries - including the US and some EU member states - a larger number than currently recognise Taiwan.

The Serbian government, united on EU membership until then, could not agree on what attitude to take towards Kosovar independence. Opinion polls suggest that some 65 per cent of the population want EU membership but some 75 per cent do not want membership to come at the cost of losing Kosovo.

One of the coalition partners then backed a resolution promoted by the far-right party, which stated that EU membership would only be approved if the EU pledged to respect Serbia's sovereignty over Kosovo.

However, two other coalition partners rejected this resolution, arguing that Serbia's best chance of both improving its standard of living and protecting its foothold on Kosovo was by EU membership. So since the government could not agree within itself on the policy it should follow towards Kosovo and the EU, the government could not function properly, and it broke down.

In a telling signal, the Serbian government has given an indication that the general election will be held on May 11, at the same time as local and provincial elections in Kosovo.

This has led to a challenge from the UN, which is in charge of Kosovo. Up till now, Kosovar Serbs have been permitted to participate in Serbian general elections. However, the organisation of local elections falls under the authority of the UN, which would like to resist what it sees as a challenge to its authority in the area.

How the issue will be resolved is at this stage far from clear. There is no doubt that the Albanian Kosovars are determined to keep their status as an independent state. My own visit in April suggested to me both proud determinism as well as some ambivalence.

I hardly saw any Kosovar flags. But there were plenty of Albanian ones, as well as some US and EU ones. The Kosovars are calling the declaration of independence "Rebirth".

Upon arrival in Kosovo, one is greeted by a huge blue and white sign declaring itself to be a banner of the "State of Kosovo". But the country's official name is "Republic of Kosovo". Could it be that the present government of Kosovo - which may well win again in the coming election - does not want to be completely provocative?

"State of Kosovo" suggests a term that could have more than one meaning - including the Serbian official meaning, that Kosovo is a state within greater Serbia. Could it be that, despite public insistence that Kosovo goes ahead with independence, the government of Kosovo may proceed more cautiously if Serbia elects a more nationalistic government in May?

Time will tell. Let us hope, for all concerned - including Europe's security - that the times do not become too interesting.

Dr Attard Montalto is a Labour member of the European Parliament.