Brown faces poll wipe-out in southern England

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown could suffer a crushing blow in local council elections next week when his ruling Labour Party is set to lose its last remaining stronghold in southeast England.

The prosperous town of Reading, 70 kilometres west of London and home to a pop festival, two universities and a host of international companies, is widely expected to part company with its Labour administration after 22 years in power.

Some 4,000 seats on 160 councils across England and Wales are at stake in next Thursday's local election, Mr Brown's first test at the polls since he took over from Tony Blair last June.

He has a mountain to climb. The latest opinion poll in yesterday's Daily Telegraph showed Labour's popularity had plunged to a 21-year-low, trailing the resurgent Conservatives by 18 percentage points.

Reading is the only district outside London in the wealthy southeast of England that still has a Labour-controlled council and its loss would be another setback to Mr Brown, whose popularity has plunged amid growing worries over the economy.

It would send a sharp signal to the ruling Labour about its prospects at the next parliamentary election, which Mr Brown must call by 2010.

"We have defied political gravity for many years," said Labour lawmaker Martin Salter, a former deputy leader of Reading council and one of the town's two members of parliament.

It would be "a remarkable achievement" if Labour retained the council when the government trails in polls, he said.

Tony Blair's ability to connect with voters in the southeast and extend Labour's support beyond its traditional northern heartlands was crucial in helping Labour end 18 years in opposition and claim three successive election victories.

His far less populist successor is struggling with the effects of the global credit crunch, including the prospect of a sharp fall in house prices, which alarms the middle classes.

"I keep on saying, Gordon Brown is not running for Reading Borough Council," said the council's Labour leader David Sutton.

But national politics are casting a shadow over local campaigning.

"I've been involved politically since the late 80s and on the doorsteps I have not known it as positive (for the Conservatives) as it is today in all that 20 years," said Andrew Cumpsty, leader of the council's 14-strong Conservative group.

"The national Gordon Brown issue is coming up a lot," he said. "His Scottish, dour personality is playing very badly with people here."

Local teacher Sean McBurney, 58, plans to vote against the council because of the "whitewash of spin" coming from the government.

"It's a sophisticated form of lying," he said. "I haven't voted for some years, but I will go Conservative this time."

Labour now controls just 50 councils in England, many in northern urban districts, compared with more than 200 run by the Conservatives.

The party in government often does badly in mid-term local elections in Britain and it is not a reliable pointer to the outcome of the next general election.

Reading defied a rout of Labour councils in 2004 at the height of public disquiet over Britain's involvement in Iraq. It was the party's worst local election performance for 40 years although Labour went on to win general elections a year later.

Nevertheless the May 1 local elections - and for Mayor of London the same day - will be watched closely by analysts and the media as to what might happen in a national poll, and to see if Brown will be the man leading Labour into that election.