Editorial

It was not expected that victory would be so sweeping but nobody can deny that overwhelming it turned out to be. The 71-year-old Silvio Berlusconi was returned to power - for the third time. For Walter Veltroni, almost 20 years his junior, the defeat was so crushing, the leader of the Democratic Party publicly declared that the left wing "was destined for a long spell in opposition".

In fact, Mr Berlusconi has a large enough majority to lead the country for an unimaginable full term but this all depends. The challenges he faces are not few and Italian politics are not straightforward.

The country is running a huge deficit. Productivity is low. The euro is strong. A fault line runs through the peninsula. For all the successes registered against it, the Mafia is not beaten. Umberto Bossi, the maverick leader of the Northern League on whom Mr Berlusconi depends if he is to run a full term - which will be one for the books - is, well, maverick. In short, it is not time for counting chickens and, if metaphors may be mixed, Mr Berlusconi had better look to his horses.

To judge from the pre-campaign rhetoric, it is doubtful if the promises made by both parties to cut down public spending and, contrarily, to invest in expensive new projects can hold. What is different this time from 2006 is an apparent meeting of minds across much of the political spectrum that bringing down Italy's deficit must be a priority.

A number of reforms that voters think are necessary are regarded balefully by the unions. However, if the Berlusconi-Bossi-Veltroni tandem can get together, and this is no longer as unlikely as it has been in the past - not least because so many small parties have been shown the door by the electorate - the possibility of changing the face of Italian politics, making it relevant to the country's economic needs, is no longer the pipe-dream it has been for so long.

A combination of deep cuts in government spending and an overhaul of the tax system should help, that is, if the government's nerves hold. The problem is that Mr Bossi, who would dearly love to see the cuts take place, also has in mind a revolutionary "devolution" of Italy. He may make any support he gives Mr Berlusconi on the deficit-cutting programme dependent on splitting the industrial north from the poorer regions of the south. This would, of course, be tantamount to the artificial creation of two countries - a northern Italy at home with the rich countries across the Alps and a southern segment left to its own devices and, inevitably, squalor, if truncated from the body politic. The ugly truth is that Italy, once the southern reflection of the German economic miracle, has over the years lost as much as 40 per cent in labour cost competitiveness with Germany. Mr Bossi blames the south for this. It is clear, however, that leaving the south to its own devices is a political contingency no government could hope to adopt, which may make Mr Berlusconi's government hostage to the machinations of the Northern League.

What appears to be, and is, an unassailable parliamentary majority also seems to be wracked by an inbuilt weakness, which, if allowed its dreadful and unacceptable logic, may well bring about not so much the "devolution" Mr Bossi so desires as the dissolution of the Italian state.

An interesting aspect of this election has been the near disintegration of a large number of smaller parties. This is all to the good and points to the possibility of Italy leaving behind the culture of political ransom-by-over-representation and settling in favour of a more reasonable, steadier form of government offered by the two-, three-party system.

The Italians are in for interesting times. With Mr Berlusconi back in harness, this is inevitable. Be that as it may, outsiders are hoping that this timearound he will make good governance his top priority.