The Sicilian vote

Italy goes to the polls on Sunday and Monday. Never as now has so much attention been given to the vote of the Sicilians in view of the effect this may have mainly on the Senate but also due to the increasing influence of the party working for the autonomy of Sicily.

Sicily was always a Christian Democrat stronghold. Since the demise of the original party this has meant a strong support for the UDC (Unione dei Democratici Cristiani e di Centro) of Pier Ferdinando Casini. UDC even managed to elect the president of the region and had a very strong following in many of the smaller towns and villages. The president of this very autonomous region has a very strong hold on Sicily, certainly like nowhere else.

Palermo still dominates very strongly and all major decisions have to be routed through there. The politicians of the provinces, all strongly individualistic, have to constantly travel to Palermo if they want to get things done. It is a very strongly centralised system.

The UDC president, Toto Guffaro, was extremely popular and still is in spite of strong indications of links to the Mafia. Mr Guffaro, who knows Malta well, has always denied any connections. It took him a long time to decide to resign and this has caused a lot of problems for UDC. Yet, he is still a very well-loved figure and UDC can certainly not be ruled out in Sicily.

Gianfranco Fini's Alleanza Nazionale, now part of Silvio Berlusconi's Partito della Libertà, has also a very strong following in Sicily. They rule many medium-sized towns and also some of the larger ones as Syracuse (where the president of the region is left and the mayor is right). They continue to play a very strong role and it has yet to be seen how their candidates will be supported within the bigger party. They have tried to appeal to Sicilians by emphasising the need for jobs and protection of their cultural identity. (They were the strongest opponents of the drilling for gas on land.)

But the real important player is Raffaelo Lombardo and the Movement for the Autonomy of Sicily, MPA. Mr Lombardo is an extremely shrewd politician who has always managed to play the Italian politics game to his advantage.

In the last election he allied himself with Lega Nord simply to ensure they got a strong percentage of the vote that would assure a number of seats in the Parliament and the Senate. His ruse, not likeable to everyone, worked very well.

This time Mr Lombardo managed to get an assurance from Mr Berlusconi that he will be the only candidate of the Partito della Libertà and his party for the presidency of the region, even though they are strongly fighting for votes on the other levels (national, regional and provincial). So it was quite natural for him to be a main speaker at a meeting held in Catania the other Sunday when the main speaker was Mr Fini!

Mr Lombardo's argument is that he will ally himself with whoever necessary as long as he gets what he wants for Sicily. He speaks about the "people of Sicily" and his speeches are always very highly "nationalistic". Polls show that he has a very strong majority at the moment as candidate for the presidency of the region and certainly more than 20 per cent for the regional vote. He may actually do better than that. Certainly within the Catania province, where he is president, he is expected to get more than 30 per cent of the vote.

Sicily is passing through a phase of very strong economic revival, especially thanks to tourism. The Sicilians are fed up with the negat-ive image the island has and are therefore looking for clean politicians. While both left and right have presented candidates who have a dubious past, Mr Lombardo has a completely clean record and insists on clean politicians. His party - he calls it a "movement" - is centred around his personality but it works well in Sicily where local and provincial identities are very strong. Mr Lombardo is very good at hitting the right notes when it comes to local sensibilities. He has been the strongest advocate for the Messina bridge. Though not all Sicilians agree with this they still see him as the best fighter for the rights of the Sicilians. In recent months he has also spoken a lot about the cultural identity of Sicily.

Of course, nothing is certain. The only certainty is the strong position of Mr Lombardo and his party. Sicily and the Sicilians have found that they have a strong voice and are willing to use it to get more attention.