The Government the people deserve

When this article is published, the 2008 general election would be over and people will be anxiously waiting for the results. I am, of course, writing two days before I cast my vote.

The election will produce one of three scenarios: One party garners the absolute majority of all valid votes cast (50 per cent +1 of first preference votes). The distribution of seats in Parliament will be adjusted to ensure that this party has a majority in the House; or, no party garners an absolute majority of first preference votes cast and only MPs from two parties are elected in Parliament. The composition of Parliament will be adjusted to give the majority of seats to the party with the relative majority. This is a straight race between two parties; or, no party garners a majority of first preference votes cast and MPs from more than two parties are elected in Parliament. In this case, the composition of Parliament is not adjusted and the result of the 65 seats as elected with our 'usual' system is final.

The last scenario is very dangerous as the electoral districts have been gerrymandered to give an edge to the MLP. This is a fact of life, not some imaginary 'masochistic' slip by the Gonzi government.

This means that if AD or AN manage to get at least one seat, and no one gets the absolute majority, the MLP will be in government. I am certain that as a result of this gerrymandering, they will get a majority of the 65 seats on their own. The irony of it is that this could happen even if the PN gets more votes than the MLP.

It is also obvious that the election cannot produce a coalition government. Scenario 1 gives majority to one party; scenario 2 is limited to a two-party parliament; and scenario 3 gives majority to MLP without any need for a coalition. In the last scenario the third party will be in a 'coalition' with the PN only in the Opposition.

For the sake of those who kept on reacting to my assessments resorting to 'ad hominem' comments, rather than by using logic and common sense, I hasten to repeat that the MLP will certainly get 33 seats out of the 65 seats elected by the system, irrespective of the percentage of first preference votes that they get on a national scale.

For the benefit of election aficionados, these 33 seats will be elected as follows: four seats in District II; three seats in each of five districts (I, III, IV, V, and VI) and two seats in each of the remaining seven districts (VI to XIII). There is no chance whatsoever of the MLP not winning these seats while it has also an outside chance of garnering a third seat in the VII district, and so bringing their total to 34 seats out of 65.

The rest of the seats will go to the other parties contesting the election. If these do not all go to the PN, and no party gets 50 per cent + 1 of the valid first preference votes cast, the MLP will be in government, even if they only get a relative minority.

I am not playing prophet by foretelling the number of votes obtained by each party but simply assessing the way the seats will be distributed, taking into consideration the way that the electoral boundaries were drawn up.

Sadly, during the election campaign the leaders of both AD and AN showed that they were in a permanent state of denial and continued to refuse to get real.

Last week, The Sunday Times reported that Harry Vassallo had declared that his is the only party that can guarantee the elimination of clientelism in Gozo, while Josie Muscat insisted that 'both parties' were afraid of AN.

It is pretty obvious that any person who boasts to guarantee the elimination of the Gozitan system of clientelism - obnoxious as it may be - does not have the faintest idea what he is talking about.

This is not a first for Vassallo. When some time back, he predicted that AD would win four seats, it was evident that he was daydreaming; just as he was when ruminating about AD being part of a coalition government, without bothering to look at the way the electoral districts were drawn up.

Incidentally, although the change in the tenth district - the removal of Swieqi and the addition of Gzira - was designed to ensure that the PN does not elect four seats, it also made it more difficult for AD to elect a seat as Swieqi and Sliema were no longer in the same district.

The election will certainly produce the second Gonzi administration or the second Sant administration without any need for a coalition. Whichever it will be, I am sure that the Maltese people will be getting the government they deserve.

micfal@maltanet.net