Good news for the Republicans

Last Tuesday's presidential primary results in the United States are once again good news for the Republicans and should be a matter of concern for the Democrats. John McCain, who won all four contests, is now the Republican nominee who can concentrate on attacking the Democrats. Hillary Clinton's remarkable comeback - she won in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island - means that the race to be the Democratic Party nominee is still wide open and could drag on for months.

Mrs Clinton's victories are a testimony to her perseverance and are an excellent result for her in her bid to become her party's candidate. She has been virtually written off on many occasions throughout this long campaign and even urged to concede the race to Barack Obama. Every time Senator Obama seems close to becoming the front-runner Clinton bounces back, such as before the New Hampshire primary, before Super Tuesday and before Texas and Ohio.

These comebacks by Hillary Clinton certainly make the race more exciting and interesting and encourage a more open debate within the Democratic Party, but the fact that these two candidates are virtually neck and neck in the battle for the nomination at such a late stage of the campaign is not good news for the Democrats.

One cannot overlook the fact that Senators Clinton and Obama are increasingly criticising each other's competence and integrity - so in a way they are doing the job for the Republicans. And the longer the contest takes, the more difficult it will be to for the party to emerge united by November.

Furthermore, because the Democratic race is so close, we can expect the so-called super delegates - party officials and grandees - to play an important role in deciding who the nominee will be. What will happen, for example, if Senator Obama has the backing of the majority of elected delegates but fails to get the nomination because the super delegates decide - as expected - to support Senator Clinton?

And what if one candidate gets the majority of delegates but not the popular vote? Such scenarios are all potentially damaging for the Democrats and point to deep divisions in the party.

In January I had forecast that Hillary Clinton would win the nomination and make Obama her vice-presidential running mate. I still think that this is the most likely outcome, although it can still go either way. However, what is certain is that should Senator Clinton be the party's nominee, she will have to make Senator Obama her vice-presidential candidate, which will be the only way to restore party unity and will almost certainly be demanded by the Obama camp.

True, the bitter rivalry between the two candidates at this late stage might make this 'dream ticket' seem almost impossible, but politics is the art of the possible and such a combination would be the only way of defeating the Republican candidate.

Should Senator Obama win the nomination, however, he need not necessarily offer Mrs Clinton the number two spot on the Democratic ticket, nor do I think she would want the job as vice-president. He would, however, need her full support - which means she will have to campaign for him - in order to win the presidency.

If Barack Obama wins the presidency, Senator Clinton would be an extremely valuable asset and ally in the Senate in getting important legislation through for the new administration. Should the Democrats maintain control of the Senate, Mrs Clinton would almost certainly be elected Senate majority leader, where she could easily establish herself as the most powerful legislator in Congress.

But first things first: next month's Democratic primary in the important state of Pennsylvania, the sixth most populous state in the US, is bound to be a major battleground for the two candidates. The contests continue all the way to June, and if the candidate is not chosen by then, it could be decided at the party convention in August, so we are most likely in for a drawn-out battle.

The Republicans, on the other hand, are gloating over the fact that, unlike the Democrats, their presidential candidate has been chosen. Mike Huckabee, Senator McCain's remaining challenger up until last week, gracefully conceded defeat and promised to support Mr McCain and to do his best to unite the party and the country.

Mr Huckabee's promise of support is important, as he represents an important conservative (and Christian) wing of the Republican Party, which has been somewhat suspicious of Mr McCain's moderate views. Mr McCain also received the official endorsement of George Bush during a meeting at the White House last week when the President passed on the Republican crown to the Arizona Senator. As one analyst remarked on CNN, however, it is a crown with thorns such as an unpopular war in Iraq and a faltering economy. However, there is no way that Mr McCain could have refused the endorsement of his Republican President.

So this contest is down to this: Will Mr McCain be able to successfully distance himself from Mr Bush while getting the support of the majority of the electorate, including Republican conservatives? On the other hand, will the Democratic Party be united enough to win the presidency and will today's two leading Democratic candidates support each other in November?