The 'others'

Through the wonders of electronic communication, I can, from far away, look every day at The Times' website and others to keep up to date with all the excitement of the election campaign. It is quite fascinating and may turn out to be a watershed in Malta's history. It is the first election since EU accession and I think that that has a significant influence.

One senses two Maltas, one still looking inward and not really prepared for change and another more pragmatic one driven by a truer sense of democracy and individual liberty.

However the bigger story is in the polls and comments. All the polls I have seen give the "others" - AD, AN, abstainers etc, as a group, something over 10 per cent of the vote, with time running out, so it looks pretty solid. The presence of a third party in Parliament is apparently not a problem to many. Therefore the two larger parties will share something like under 90 per cent between them. For either to get 50 per cent the other would get as little as 40 per cent which is pretty unlikely. This is fresh territory.

Then there is the "trend" factor. Trends come as visible and underlying. Given the low total achieved by AD last time and their poll showings now there is a definite strong visible trend in their direction. From comments and letters you get the sense that they are no longer considered "cranks" but offer reasoned solutions to many issues.

This is the underlying trend; those who are still hovering but may just, increasingly put off by the mud-slinging, give their vote to AD on the day in the privacy of the poll. Another factor will be the increasing number of young Maltese who travel and in some cases work elsewhere in the EU. They will have seen how things can be done without lurching from left to right. They will better understand the Green agenda. I doubt PN, MLP can rely on all those votes. If the underlying trend becomes visible at the election the "other" vote will be higher than any poll predicts now. That's politics.

Whatever happens on the day, the trend away from a rigid two-party system, if it carries though the next Parliament, could provide a serious challenge at the next election. The genie is out of the bottle.