Kosovo: Ripples in the Mediterranean

For a long time I thought of the instability in Iraq as distant from Europe. Not distant in terms of its possible impact on terrorism in Europe, of course. Nor distant in terms of the international efforts that Europe must invest to promote peace. But distant in that it seems like a very Middle Eastern crisis, not something that could happen in Europe at all.

Then Kosovo began its move towards independence from Serbia. An independence it consummated at the beginning of this week.

The international reports have tended to slant its coverage from a "Slavic" angle - Serbia's refusal to concede independence and Russia's hostility to a breakaway Kosovo. But there has also been ambivalence from certain European quarters.

The European Union has largely endorsed Kosovo's quest to pursue its destiny. However, several member states have had to express their endorsement very carefully indeed. They fear that their recognition of Kosovo could trigger breakaway movements in their own territories, or have repercussions on their own status.

The obvious case is Cyprus, which has expressed reservations in the Council of Ministers, although constructively. Cyprus fears that its recognition of Kosovo might be taken to legitimise the breakaway self-proclaimed republic (recognised only by Turkey) set up in the north of the divided island.

The nervousness spreads rather wider than Cyprus, however. Romania, Slovakia and Greece also have serious reservations, fearing breakaway states or movements to join other states (for example, that Greek Macedonia might vote to join the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia).

There are concerns about the unity of Macedonia itself as well as of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro.

But a country like Spain also has worries. Serbia's proposed solution to the Kosovo problem - of accelerated EU entry for a Serbia that includes Kosovo, with more autonomy for Kosovo in the context of EU membership - resembles the situation of Spain and regions like Catalonia. But if Kosovo can break away, might it not provide an impetus for Catalonia or even the Basque region? In listing these various countries that have reservations or concerns, one notices that several of them are Mediterranean. It is a reminder that peace in the Mediterranean does not involve only the south.

It is also a reminder that southeast Europe is a mirror image, in political-ethnic terms, of the situation in the Middle East: a patchwork quilt of ethnicities and religious confessional identities that have historically coexisted but live somewhat uneasily in the context of modern nation-states.

The resemblance, of course, is no coincidence. The two shores of the western Mediterranean, in particular, share a common history thanks to the Roman civilisation later followed by that of Islam; the two shores of the eastern Mediterranean, in particular, share a common history bacause of the Ottoman empire. The resemblance to Iraq may not be such a coincidence, after all.

Politicians, of course, need to come up with solutions, not sweeping historical generalisations. Is there any clear course of action that can be taken with respect to Kosovo? The horse has clearly bolted. Kosovo's independence is a fact to be recognised. However, my party in the European Parliament, the Party of European Socialists, is considering its position.

Its provisional deliberations acknowledge the diversity of European views. However, the importance of European unity on this issue cannot be overstressed. Any European division would be a serious show of weakness because it would enable a situation with dramatic European ramifications to be directed by the United States and Russia. Whereas with a challenge so close to home, it is Europe that should be the principal international actor.

Another issue that needs to be tackled is the Serbian reaction.

This includes that of the Serbian minority within Kosovo, many of whose members may well become refugees over the coming weeks, even though the President of Kosovo has declared that their rights will be respected. There is also the reaction within Serbia itself and the possible popular reactions against the newly re-elected pro-EU President.

Here, the right formula will need to include a European preparedness to receive Serbian refugees as well as financial and other aid to Serbia to help it along its path to European integration. In addition, to allay fears of the emergence of a "greater Albania", an international ban on the unification of Kosovo with Albania would need to be imposed, while the territorial integrity of the wider region would need to be guaranteed.

These are some of the elements that are being discussed. I shall be following them closely. But having approached the Kosovo question from the Mediterranean angle, I cannot help returning to the burning Mediterranean question with the treatment of the Kosovo problem in mind.

The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is not too distant from Europe. What would be the prospects of peace there if the EU tackled the issue with as much energy and as much readiness to use substantial aid as is being contemplated for Kosovo and Serbia?

Dr Attard Montalto is a Labour member of the European parliament.