What chance of a coalition? (1)

For the benefit of AD official and candidate Edward Fenech (February 11), I repeat why a realistic assessment of the present electoral set-up must necessarily lead to the conclusion that the March 8 election cannot produce a coalition government.

A coalition government is theoretically possible if the election produces a Parliament with MPs from more than two parties, with no party having obtained the absolute majority (50 per cent + one) of first preference votes.

In this scenario there is no constitutional mechanism for the adjustment of the distribution of seats between parties and the 65 seats elected according to the system used in our elections will be final. My realistic assessment is that since the electoral boundaries have been drawn up to favour the MLP, this party will have a majority of seats (33 or more) irrespective of the percentage of first preference votes that it garners. Hence it would be in power without needing to forge a coalition with anyone.

The whys and the wherefores of what has led to this situation and who is responsible - morally or otherwise - for its development are irrelevant for the purposes of my assessment.

Since Mr Fenech chose to misinterpret the June 2004 MEP election results, notwithstanding the benefit of hindsight, I take the opportunity to quote what I wrote in The Times of June 10, 2004, two days before that election: "I perceive that Saturday's European Parliament election is heading for a situation where the PN and the MLP will each garner two 'safe' seats while there will be a three-horse race for the fifth seat. In this situation, AD's efforts to attract traditional PN voters could easily lead to the MLP getting the fifth seat without a quota".

After that election, I refrained from saying "I told you so". This time around, I promise readers of The Times a letter with such a title any day after March 10.