Last week I highlighted how a period of high share price volatility was a great profit-making opportunity. This is exactly what happened during these last few hectic days on the world's stock markets.

We can illustrate clearly what happened with the help of Nokia, a share which is today leading the revival of the world's stock exchanges. It is now a world economic leader, and not just a European champion; 80 per cent of its sales are in China. A couple of years ago, I wrote about 'A Globalised Nokia', saying "Nokia is probably the world's greatest globalisation success story. It recently announced an increase during the next year of its China sales by 77 per cent. Nokia has beaten the Chinese in the sales and design of a low-cost mobile. Nokia's success depends on the world market for mobiles, and not just the saturated on of the EU."

Last Thursday, the Financial Times' Lex column spoke of Motorola's woes. This followed the publication on Wednesday of its gloomy results. The FT stated that it prompted "many to abandon altogether any hope of a bounceback - Motorola's already battered shares fell another 23 per cent". Motorola's marked productivity decline as against Nokia had already been pointed out by Reuters last January 14.

So the stage was set for a Nokia tiger leap by last Friday when it was expected to announce, as Reuters had predicted on the 14th, a 47 per cent rise in profits. Actual profits rose 46 per cent as it was selling four in 10 mobiles globally.

Clever money traders were able to short Nokia very easily, keeping in mind the expected results of Thursday. As during this week there was a severe world stock exchange downturn it happened that the shorting of Nokia (selling the share with a view to buying it cheaper days or hours later) could be mistaken as a genuine Nokia downturn. The fundamentals of Nokia as compared with those of Motorola were not only good, but outstandingly good, so money traders were able to make 19 per cent on Nokia between Sunday and Friday.

What really lies behind Nokia's stupendous advance during this last week as against Motorola? Nokia has acquired economies of scale and is pushing its rivals to the wall; 62.5 per cent of analysts are predicting a significant rise in the Nokia share price, 12.5 per cent are advising the taking of profits. Its 40 per cent share of the world market will be however very difficult to defend, and should be monitored by all hardworking brokers.

This article is cultural, not advisory. Mr Azzopardi Vella, an economic consultant with DBR Investments Ltd, has promoted the Malta Development Fund and advised S&P; e-mail: johnazzopardivella@hotmail.com.

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