Speculation is always as rife as the persistent majjistral - the northwesterly - on this wind-swept little island. If it is not about one thing, it is the other. Since Boxing Day it has been about the health of Opposition leader Alfred Sant. He attempted to put that to rest on Monday. In a much-reported, much-viewed media conference he gave graphic details about his illness; more, I believe, than should be expected from any person, however public he might be.
Sant gave a worrying indication, for those of us who truly wish him well, that he places his political role above the important fine-tuning recommended by UK medical experts to make the successful surgical intervention more so, increasing probability of non-recurrence of the malady by four percentage points to 87 per cent. I feel it is sad that political considerations should elicit such a reaction.
A person's health is of primary importance to himself as an individual and to his family. If he is a politician, no matter how substantial his standing, his political role and party come third by over a mile, irrespective of external or internal political pressures.
By speaking as he did, the Labour leader took much of the wind out of the sails of the speculators; of those who say one thing but basically feel another. As well as of anyone who reputedly found it necessary to approach an MLP elder to ask him whether he would be ready as an alternative the moment Sant's illness was revealed, a suggestion which the elder, to his credit, immediately snorted away.
Ultimately, it is Sant's right to decide his course of action, at whatever potential cost to him. May his decision prove to have been the right one in terms of his health. And may he be in full harness within the timeframe he has determinedly set himself. With that speculation out of the way, feverish attention turned back to when Lawrence Gonzi will call the election.
If last weekend's sweeping rumours were to be believed, Dr Gonzi was set to fire the starter's gun on any day from Monday on. So much so that he felt he had to put an end to that by denying he was about to call the election. That did not make speculation calm down. If anything its restless wind blew more frenziedly.
Those who claim inside knowledge say that the Prime Minister will definitely not leave the polling to later than a week in March. The end of winter seems to have a particular fascination for those who suggest that Gonzi is anxious not to let the euro impact effect on prices start being felt before the election takes place.
They take note that three weeks ago he brushed aside questions regarding the impact of Sant's illness on the election date. The important thing at this stage, he told a newshound, is to hope that Sant will get well. He was very correct in putting it like that. But, the pundits say, he remains a politician and the timing of the election could be crucial to his chances or otherwise of success.
Once again, ultimately it is up to Gonzi to decide. It may well be he is confident that the euro changeover is going smoothly enough to rein in unjustified price increases, even when the pause agreed with leading suppliers of key products and services ends once March is out. He may prove right one Nationalist elder who told me that he did not believe the PM would give up the full five months that remain to him between March and August, when he is obliged to call the election. Speculation on May being the month, before a heavy schedule of meetings abroad starts, is the new twist in the whirling wind.
It is a wonder that official bets are not being taken, with the odds lengthening or shortening with the passage of each day. However, illegal bets are probably being laid. Whatever unknowns the speculation wind is generating, there is one factor that can be stated with certainty: the suspense may be exciting, even profitable for some; but it is not doing any good for the economy.
As a general election approaches it is common for an economic slowdown to creep in. Decision- takers prefer to be certain on basic political factors. Even though there is hardly any ideology in play, no matter how hard the opposing parties try to spin otherwise, economic agents prefer to be certain over whether they will be operating under the devil they known, or a replacement.
Put differently, in the run-up to a general election there is always a degree of uncertainty in the air. And economic operators hate uncertainty. True enough, with most sectors of the economy as presently structured, and with so many economic parameters not dependent on internal political gyrations, any changes signalled by a general election do not count for as much as in the past.
Still, there are sectors and sub-sectors, which are severely affected by uncertainty and speculation. Real estate, for instance, is practically inactive. Economic implications will only be one of the considerations passing through Gonzi's mind at present. Correct though he may be, his foremost thought at this stage must be political - choosing the timing that gives him the highest chance of winning his first election.
No one, certainly not any columnist, will make up the Prime Minister's mind for him, or even influence him. Nevertheless it is worth stressing that uncertainty is bad, and heightened speculation makes it worse. The devil cannot be allowed to take the hindmost. Whoever the hindmost is, too much damage could be caused in the process.