Back on the peace track

The Middle East Annapolis conference must certainly be identified as a major positive development with more than 50 countries and international institutions participating in the first international conference of its kind to focus on the Israeli-Palestinian issue in more than seven years.

Following the 1991 Madrid Conference, the 1993 Oslo accords, the 2001 Taba negotiations, the 2001 Mitchell report, the 2002 Saudi peace plan and the 2003 Road Map, several international pundits are sceptical that the Annapolis peace initiative will prove successful. Yet, such analysis does not take into serious consideration the fact that, this time around, there is a significant difference when it comes to the geopolitical context within which the current peace initiative is taking place.

The Middle East has been through a decade of endless strife and suffering that has seen extremist movements increase their influence across the region. The Iraq war that has helped enhance Iran's position in the region, the Lebanese war resulted in further cementing the popularity of Hizbollah and the Israeli-Palestinian open conflict strengthened support for Hamas.

Of course, it is not a foregone conclusion that the post-Annapolis peace drive will deliver a permanent settlement to the six decades of conflict between Israel and Palestine. Much will depend on the political will that the leaders concerned are ready to invest in the compromises that will have to be made. Ultimately, it will really boil down to the Israelis' and Palestinians' desire for peace, having experienced first hand the alternative lifestyle of suffering and fear. But what is certain is that the outcome of the current round of peace negotiations will determine whether the moderates in the Middle East will be able to counter the rise of extremist movements that has taken place, especially since the American invasion of Iraq in March 2003.

If the framework of a comprehensive and sustainable peace settlement are to emerge during next year it will have to encompass the following issues.

First, two states for two people: Two democratic states, Israel and Palestine, side by side as stipulated by UN resolutions 242 and 338.

Second, the Palestinian state must be established on most of the West Bank and all of Gaza.

Third, Israel must agree to the 1967 boundaries in the West Bank with no more than three concentrated settlements of Israeli settlers.

Fourth, Palestinian refugees must have the right of return to the new Palestinian state plus compensation.

Fifth, Jerusalem will serve as one capital for two states, a united city with Arab east Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital.

Sixth, demilitarisation of the borders between two states will have to take place.

Seventh, a comprehensive settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict will have to include a resolution of the Golan Heights issue with Syria and recognition of Israel.

The role of the international community in the 2008 scheduled peace talks will also be a decisive factor.

The United States must be prepared to invest all of its political and economic resources to continuously supporting the Israelis and Palestinians. President George W. Bush has a chance to significantly shift the legacy he will leave behind when it comes to the Middle East if he can deliver on the commitment of a Palestinian state. If such an outcome is to stand a chance of succeeding it is essential that his Secretary of State, Condoleeza Rice, adopts a Henry Kissinger style of shuttle diplomacy in 2008 in the Middle East to serve as facilitator when sensitive negotiations risk derailing peace talks.

Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair's role as fundraiser and political facilitator of the Quartet already seems to be delivering positive results. Thus, it must be complemented by the appointment of a high-profile EU envoy to also support Israel and Palestine through the difficult negotiations that are certain to follow in 2008.

Having created the opportunity for peace talks to again commence, all stakeholders with an interest in stability in the Middle East must stand up and be counted in the months to come. In addition to the EU, other actors, including the League of Arab States, must seek to influence peace talks as envisaged in the 2002 Beirut Arab League peace plan. Nato, which has been considering for a long time the possibility of playing a peace keeper type of role in the initial stages of a post-settlement situation, must also offer its support.

If a permanent settlement is to stand any chance of surviving it will require an iron-clad international community insurance policy so that forces against stability reigning across the Middle East are not allowed to derail such an outcome.

Having found a path back to the peace track, all efforts must now concentrate on helping navigate a successful way forward.

Prof. Calleya is an international relations analyst.