Editorial

It is not often that the Commonwealth agrees to a line of action as swiftly as it has done in the case of Pakistan. Yet, there was its Action Group, last Monday, threatening the country with suspension unless, among other steps he was called upon to take, General Pervez Musharraf lifted the state of emergency he slapped on less than a fortnight ago.

Australian Commonwealth Secretary General Don McKinnon did not beat about the bush: "The message is, you've got about 10 days".

The ultimatum needs to be understood in the context of the timeframe set by the Commonwealth heads of government summit due to meet next week in Uganda.

The simple truth is that Gen. Musharraf could not have acted as precipitately as he did at a worse time. Apart from the Commonwealth, which he did not take much into consideration - Pakistan can survive suspension - the general angered President George W. Bush. The American leader has enough problems to deal with in Iraq and Afghanistan, without one of his key allies on the war on terror taking a decision that could have led, may still lead, to civil war.

It is possible to argue that the stability of Pakistan is fundamental to the war on terror being fought out in Afghanistan and to claim that the restoration of democracy in a country threatened by anti-democratic forces may not provide the durability of government necessary to conduct that war. Both points carry validity.

The awkward thing is that over the past few months, Gen. Musharraf has been playing his cards crassly and once he decided that the only way forward was to have himself re-elected at any cost, everything that could have gone wrong, did.

The return of Benazir Bhutto from self-imposed exile and of the man he deposed, Nawaz Sharif (in this case the return was short-lived because he was deported to Saudi Arabia the moment he landed on Pakistani soil) was supposed to usher in a process where the general, minus his rank, would have contested elections against two previous prime ministers, against a real opposition.

The attempt on Ms Bhutto's life gave him the cue for a clamp-down that saw thousands of people jailed, the Chief Justice sacked and the independence of the judiciary trampled upon.

Contrary to Gen. Musharraf's gamble that the Bush Administration needed its staunch ally too much for it to do anything about his behaviour, the United States was not amused. Made privy to his intentions, it urged the general to back away from the course he subsequently took and has since been threatening to cut off all aid to the country ($11 billion since 9/11) unless he returned to the status quo ante.

Evidence is that he is slowly coming to the conclusion that he has no alternative. The army does not seem to have enjoyed the task of overseeing what was, in effect, a coup against democracy. Elections will now be held in January 2008, not, as his Prime Minister said last week, in January 2009. But, so far, the state of emergency has not been repealed, the media remains restricted, those gaoled unreleased and the Constitution unrestored.

As has been pointed out above, Pakistan could survive outside the Commonwealth, however, this presupposes a united Pakistan, working in concert at all levels. This is demonstrably not the case.

The Commonwealth's intervention may yet be seen as the straw that broke the camel's back.