Independence Day circus and two-ply strategies

Malta, of course, is different. Elsewhere Independence Day is an occasion for unity. The people, without any maiming of the collective term, celebrate the day that marks their coming of age, the end of a colonial period or a period of occupation, the start of an era where a democratic majority elects the government for it to lead and decide according to its programme and the interplay of democratic pressures. Over here Independence Day is a synonym for division and partisanship.

When Nationalist Leader Dr George Borg Olivier led Malta to independence in 1964 the early reaction of his main opponent, Opposition Leader Dom Mintoff, was that the day had its significance, in allowing the people to decide for themselves.

Not long after, that single positive note was loaded with heavy Labour scorn - Malta's independence was not for real, since the island remained tied to Britain with a defence agreement, which allowed the former colonial power to keep and maintain a full-blown military base here.

From the start, therefore, Independence Day was celebrated by the Nationalists alone. They do that in as partisan a manner as possible. The programme of 'celebrations' for this year, culminating in a big do on the Granaries on Thursday, was no different.

If anything, it was more partisan than ever. Lawrence Gonzi, the current PN leader and Prime Minister, is proving he can be as partisan as any predecessor or opponent. Among other things he demonstrated that too in the way he handled the novelty of the week - interviews by journalists from the Labour side.

They were as partisan as they were expected to be. In turn the prime minister, who may be thought to operate on a slightly higher plane, harangued the journalists, shouting his replies in the style of an old open market to emphasise the point of the occasion: a partisan circus.

Independence Day, rather than a day when the people reflect that, whatever their differences, they are free from any foreign yoke, that they accepted to surrender part of their sovereignty to the EU as a free, democratic choice that could only be taken by an independent people, became a day of fun and games. And also a day for baiting the creatures on the other side of the political divide.

This year it was something else as well: the unofficial but unmistakable start of the electoral campaign. The election will not be held this year. We have ahead of us around six months of strident electioneering with no holds barred.

The Independence style of 2007 confirmed that the PN general secretary was justified to say that the PN election strategy had been mapped out and there was nothing to prevent him from taking a summer holiday. Summer ended on Thursday, and on that day too electioneering started in deadly earnest.

The PN strategy is as simple as a two-ply wood can be. Orchestrated by the Prime Minister the PN will focus on the persona of Opposition Leader Alfred Sant. He will be the magnet to their attacks and vituperation, with side blows at the MLP as a party whose 1996-98 record shows it cannot govern.

The second ply will consist of constant reiteration by Dr Gonzi of what he bills as his achievements in the three years plus he has been Prime Minister. He will lead with a right clutching the SmartCity model and follow with a left fistful of euros.

He will add to that as many macro stories as he can tot up.

That strategy is expected to win the Nationalists lost ground and help them edge ahead by election day. Insiders are sceptical, but suggest that ever since Dr Gonzi started adorning his top table with young candidates and sitting MPs there is a revival of interest among flagging Nationalists. Maybe, but it has yet to reach an unknown number of disillusioned Nationalists who do not intend to vote.

Countered by the equally evident selected Labour strategy, the twin Nationalist ploys have yet to show they are impressing the uncommitted, mostly young voter.

The Labour approach is also a simple two-ply creation. It rests on attacking the Nationalists for incompetence and worse, citing scores of unfinished - or unstarted - symphonies and various individual PN personalities; and on promoting the line that Labour has prepared itself to govern, particularly through its widespread consultations.

There is a long way to go before the final score is known but, already, one can see a contrast which has the Nationalists losing out. Demonising Dr Sant is easy enough; it may persuade committed Nationalists to vote, but it cuts no ice at all with the uncommitted. If anything, it rouses sympathy towards the Labour leader. Propounding macro issues is also easy for the prime minister, but what people are most interested in is how they are or will be affected.

SmartCity should turn out to be a good project, yet people expect results here and now. Constructing state-of-the-art school buildings is important, but parents are primarily interested in the results achieved by their offspring.

Talking about qualification to adopt the EU is a good descriptive story; however, consumers are not interested in the fall in the Retail Price Index, but in the rise of the cost of their weekly spend. The index is a measure, and no one should suggest it is bent, for it is not. But the reality lived by many families is a far cry from what the RPI says.

The difference in strategies is also summarised in the metaphors chosen by the political leaders. One, in particular, has become a favourite with Dr Gonzi, without anybody telling him of the boomerang that lies within it.

Throughout last week he made sarcastic fun of Dr Sant for focusing on the Balluta drainage problem. He doesn't speak about education! yelled the PN leader. Not one word. And then he talks about a manhole! And his listeners, massaged into the mood, duly laugh.

Balluta-area residents are not laughing. Those who used to bathe in or stroll by Balluta Bay do not share the Prime Minister's merriment. They do not even manage to raise a weak grin. In contrast, the Leader of the Opposition cuts to the core of the issue.

Did the drainage problem have to end in court, with one ministry (Health) suing another public entity (the Water Services Corporation) while people suffered? Shouldn't the prime minister have brought the two sides together?

That's really landing the PM into it, following which he landed himself deeper still. The Balluta sewage pipe does not fit into the metaphor of a manhole. There is nothing funny about it. It is incredible that it had to be a magistrate to order a site visit and an examination by an expert.

That an old drainage pipe was forgotten when new plans were drawn up in 1995 is a matter of human error. That public authorities bickered and entered into legal battles, rather than carry out a joint inspection to try to identify the cause of the drainage spillage and dealing with it, is more than remarkable. It is disgusting.

Common people understand that much more than they do endless rhetoric regarding big projects, the euro and whatever else. Strategies that look good on paper have to be tested in the reality world. The present gap between the parties tells the result of that test up to now.

So far the Labour strategy seems to be winning, with the Nationalists having to play a chasing game. That is not to say that the way Labour is playing its cards is the best imaginable. One of the main cards is the so-called middle class. The Labour strategists know that they have to win support among the middle-income groups to gain an adequate majority.

Yet the way it goes at that vote sometimes gives the impression that too much focus is being set up that segment of the electorate.

On Wednesday the Labour leader cast doubt in his column in The Times on whether the public deficit has been reduced in the manner claimed by the government. He drove home an observation that the deficit problem was sprung on an unwary public right after the 2003 election, which the PN had fought on the basis that the public finances were "sound" at that stage.

In the second place, wrote Dr Sant, what really happened since then was not that the government achieved better value for money in its spending, but that it outmatched the ongoing growth in public spending by a steep increase in tax burdens. "This happened mostly at the expense of the middle class."

That was another nail in what is a weak plank in the Labour box. The tax take has been rising because of growth in the economy, and because the Inland Revenue has become more efficient in collecting what is due to it, though in various sectors evasion is still rampant. The tax burden as affected by tax rates has risen on the one hand, and fallen on the other.

The increase of the top VAT rate to 18 per cent, and spreading the second 5 per cent rate more extensively increased the burden. But, not for the so-called middle class alone. The increase affected all service users. And, when Labour is elected to office, I doubt that it will return the top rate to 15 per cent and cancel the total spread effected three years ago. To imply otherwise would be to give hostages to fortune that cannot be redeemed.

There will be scope, and room, for marginal adjustments to the VAT coverage, but not for major surgery. Labour should be well warned before it decides to go down that route again.

As for the income tax burden, it has actually been lightened for middle income earners. There was one rise several years ago, but it was quickly reversed. And the last changes in thresholds and smoothing of bands left something in the pocket of middle income earners, and not in that of the lower income groups, who got absolutely nothing.

A modern Labour Party cannot talk only in working class terms. But neither can it afford to appear to turn old priorities on their head. Halving the fuel surcharge right across the board, for instance, would be a measure that leaves more in the pocket of the middle class, than those on lower incomes.

The Independence Circus will not be the last political jamboree between now and the general election. Rather, expect quite more of them, from both major sides. The two sides will also be updating and honing their strategies, as they go along.

It is unlikely that the two-ply approach will be altered, though. What is likely to happen is that mudslinging and vituperation will increase.

It will no be a pretty sight, or experience.