By this time next year, Malta will have elected a new government, because a general election will have to be held by the penultimate week of August 2008.

It will be Lawrence Gonzi's first general election as Premier, having became leader of the Nationalist Party in March 2004, replacing Eddie Fenech Adami - who was later nominated President - and becoming Prime Minister shortly afterwards.

For Alfred Sant, this will be his fourth general election. He became MLP leader in March 1992, replacing Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici, and won the general election in 1996, his government lasting only 22 months.

The date by when an election has to be held is laid down in the Constitution. Parliament, it states, should run for five years after being convened following a general election. After the last election in 2003, Parliament met for the first time on May 24. It can, therefore, run till May 24, 2008. The latest that a general election can be held is three months after this date, making Saturday, August 23, 2008, the last possible date for a general election.

The date of the general election is ultimately the prerogative of the Prime Minister and Dr Gonzi recently made it very clear the government "still has a life to run". A number of projects, he has insisted, are still to be announced and new measures need to be implemented before an election is called. He has repeatedly said that an election would be called "at a time when it would be in the best interests of the country".

However, political observers note that this could be "just a smokescreen to catch the opposition unaware with an early election".

Dr Sant, on the other hand, has been stepping up the MLP campaign and has challenged the "government to call an election tomorrow".

"Even talk of an early election tends to create a measure of uncertainty, which is the last thing the Nationalists want, especially now that tourism, the economy and investment seem to be on the right track.

"Nationalists will view talk of an early election as a Labour ploy to slow down the economy, which the Nationalists believe will be Dr Gonzi's winning card for a second term. This explains why PN spokesmen seem very reticent on election dates and will not give more than a cursory look at what a calendar might reveal," sources close to the Nationalist Party said.

A look at the calendar, in fact, presents few real options.

As the budget is expected to be presented in the second week of October, an election could be held as early as November 24 or December 1.

"Though one might view it as unlikely that an election is held close to Christmas, there was a precedent in 1981 and in politics one can never say never. An early election may well be held before the entry of the euro because of fear of perceived inflation," a source close to one of the political parties said.

"One advantage of calling a snap election in November is that no one would be expecting it so soon. And if there are goodies in the budget, people would be talking about them although they might not necessarily be feeling their effects yet," the source added.

But, according to another political source, a major factor militating against a November election is the visit by Queen Elizabeth and the Duke of Edinburgh. They will be stopping in Malta, as guests of the government, en route to Uganda for a state visit in connection with the Commonwealth summit, which will be held between November 23 and 25. If an election is called in November, the visit would have to be called off.

"An election in January or soon after is highly unlikely because of the introduction of the euro. If one has to hold an early election it would be before that, or waiting and using the introduction of the euro as part of the campaign," the source said.

"The other options would then be some time between late April and June. Elections before this time are out of the question because Good Friday and Easter will be celebrated very early next year - on March 21 and 23 respectively. So it is safe to assume that, unless an election is called later this year, there would not be an election before these dates."

Sources close to the MLP said that Saturday, April 12, could be a very good date, as it was also the date of the last general election, when people voted PN to see Malta join the EU. "The PN could have well tried to opt for this date but that means that the campaign would have to be interrupted by Good Friday and Easter, something the parties would want to avoid.

"If the general election is held after April, the local council elections would have to be shifted from March, as had happened in the elections for the European Parliament, when voting had been shifted from March to June," the sources added.

If the election is announced on the Monday after Easter, it could be held on April 26.

A source close to the PN said: "The advantage of holding an election some time between April and June is that positive budgetary measures will have started to be felt, the economy would continue on an upward trend and a successful introduction of the euro would help as wel"l.

Projects in hand would have been completed, EU funds would be pouring in and the Mater Dei Hospital would be open and receiving visitors.

"A factor no one mentions but, which will play a role, is Dr Sant's age: He will turn 60 on February 28."

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