Some months ago I wrote an article predicting that the next general election would be a hard-fought one with a close finish. Some people have asked me whether, in the light of recent events highly detrimental to the chances of the Nationalist Party's winning the next general election, I still stand by what I wrote then. Yes, I do.

It is true that the alleged corruption scandals and their fallout have severely dented the government's image in the eyes of all citizens. It is also true that the general public is today educated enough to see through empty government propaganda. Let us take education as an example. While the Nationalist government is continuously boasting about its successes in this field, people are noting that in 2006, Malta had the highest rate of early school-leavers in the European Union, 41.6 per cent, compared to the average EU rate of 15.4 per cent. Malta also had the lowest rate of students who continued their post-secondary studies, 50.4 per cent, compared to the average EU rate of 77.8 per cent.

Let me be as fair as possible and state that some minor economic progress has been achieved under the Lawrence Gonzi administration. Still, the problem remains that this has not been translated into a better quality of life for the people. One of the reasons for this can be found in the fact that public wastage of funds under this government has reached unacceptable proportions, wiping out the beneficial effects of other minor economic achievements.

So, does Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi seem to be with his back to the wall as the general election approaches? Yes, definitely.

Let us now have a look at the situation of the Malta Labour Party. Labour has been very effective in opposition. It has kept the government on its toes and has recently published a 650-page policy-rich publication entitled A Plan For A New Beginning, which will form the basis of its manifesto at the next general election. Labour's vision is based on three main elements: economic direction, a social agenda and the need for better quality and efficiency in public services.

Alfred Sant is increasingly being seen by more and more Maltese as the person who can steer Malta towards a better future. Labour is today regarded by many as a better alternative to the Nationalist government.

Readers will remark that I seem to have demolished my own arguments about a hard-fought general election with a close finish. No, my friends, because there are several other factors that one has to take into consideration.

First of all, there will always be a substantial number of voters who have vested interests in retaining the Nationalist Party in government. Clientelism is still rampant in Malta. Such people will always vote PN even if one brings all the arguments in the world in favour of voting Labour.

Then there are those voters who are so loyal to the PN and so anti-Labour that they will always vote PN, totally disregarding the performance of the latter in government. Make no mistake about it, the number of such voters is also quite substantial.

In addition, one has to take into account the electoral campaign. A well-organised and well-planned electoral campaign will influence many voters who are undecided about which political party to vote for, especially if such voters belong to that section of the population which couldn't be bothered to read the electoral manifesto of one party or the other(s) but which follows closely media coverage of the electoral campaign. Finally, of course, there are the intellectuals who will vote according to what they perceive to be in the best interests of the country. This is the group of voters, rather small in number, who usually decide the outcome of a general election.

History also seems to support my argument of a general election with a close finish. Let us examine the 1971 and 1987 general elections. In 1971, the Nationalists had been in government since 1962 and Labour had last been in government as far back as 1958. The Borg Olivier government was being heavily criticised for its poor performance and alleged corruption and it seemed that the 1971 general election would be a landslide victory for the MLP.

What was the result, however? The MLP obtained 85,448 votes to the PN's 80,753. The issue of who was to govern was in those days decided on the basis of parliamentary seats won. Had a relatively small number of votes gone to the PN instead of the MLP on one particular electoral district, the PN would have been re-elected to government. It was as close as that!

In 1987, the MLP had been in government since 1971. The years preceding the 1987 general election had been ones of turmoil with increasing political polarisation, due in part to the "perverse" result of the 1981 general election. It seemed that many voters wanted a change because Labour had been in power for so many years by then. Again, some were predicting a landslide victory for the PN. What was the result? 119,721 first-count votes for the PN and 114,936 for the MLP. Again, it was as close as that!

So, to conclude, although everything seems to indicate an MLP victory at the next general election, this cannot be taken for granted. They say that a week is a long time in politics, more so the months remaining till the next general election. The MLP is in a strong position and has all the credentials to aspire to a victory. It must continue to work hard to consolidate such a position.

What about Lawrence Gonzi and the Nationalists? Will that old fox, Joe Saliba, and his team be capable of some Machiavellian tour de force which will enable them to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat? It remains to be seen.

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