After years waiting impatiently for his chance to lead Britain, Gordon Brown could not have hoped for a more successful first month as Prime Minister.

New leaders usually enjoy a honeymoon with voters but the change in fortunes of Mr Brown and his party has been so marked that speculation is growing he could call an early election, perhaps even in October.

During Tony Blair's final days in office, the Labour Party was drifting and the opposition Conservatives were increasingly confident of ending a run of three election defeats.

As he waited with increasing frustration for Mr Blair to step aside, Mr Brown was portrayed by the media as devious, authoritarian and incapable of working with others.

Since he became Prime Minister, such doubts have been swept aside and his personality has become a virtue. Mr Brown's sober, serious manner has struck a chord with voters tired of Mr Blair's public relations glitz and desire for a favourable headline.

Mr Brown's popularity has helped Labour build a strong opinion poll lead and his break with Mr Blair's style has turned the pressure on opposition leader David Cameron, regarded by critics as being Mr Blair-like in his approach to politics.

Mr Brown, who succeeded Mr Blair in June after winning a party leadership vote, is not forced to call an election until 2010 and the spring of 2009 is now regarded as the most likely date.

Analysts doubt he will call an October election, viewing Labour's election hints as an attempt to further destabilise the Conservatives who have yet to finalise their policies.

"Gordon Brown has been waiting for 14 years to become prime minister. He's not going to put it in jeopardy after six months," said Patrick Dunleavy, political science professor at the London School of Economics.

Labour, with £25 million of debts, must also replenish its coffers and rebuild its base of party workers and activists before it can fight a general election.

Economics, Mr Brown's area of competence during a decade as finance minister under Mr Blair, may also rule out an early poll.

Rising interest rates could cause a sharp slowdown in consumer spending in the next few months and make it a poor time for Mr Brown to go to the polls.

"There's not going to be an early election," said MORI pollster Robert Worcester. "The economy is going to be rocky, next May is not going to be a good time." Mr Worcester predicted the next election would be in June 2009.

By ditching some of Mr Blair's policies and focusing on public services and housing rather than divisive issues such as Iraq, Mr Brown appears to have satisfied voters' desire for change.

Mr Brown won praise for his calm handling of an alleged al Qaeda bomb plot days after he took office, responded solidly to Britain's worst floods in 60 years and clashed with Russia by expelling four diplomats over an ex-spy's murder.

He reassured conservatives by backing away from Mr Blair's plans for a Las Vegas-style supercasino and announcing that penalties for cannabis use might be tightened.

Mr Brown held his first talks with US President George W. Bush at Camp David and scored a diplomatic success with a UN Security Council resolution on the Darfur conflict. Mr Blair's close friendship with Mr Bush became a lead weight for his popularity when the situation in Iraq deteriorated and Mr Brown appears unlikely to follow his example.

Labour's opinion poll lead of up to nine points has been helped by the Conservatives' internal feuding.

Mr David Cameron has steered the Conservatives towards the political centre but a row over education policy showed he faces strong opposition from right-wingers.

The Conservatives did poorly in two parliamentary by-elections last month and Mr Cameron committed another public relations blunder by visiting Rwanda when his constituency was hit by flooding.

The mistakes led some in his party to question his leadership and fuelled speculation he could be just one more in a procession of Conservative leaders who have tried and failed to rebuild the party into a force that can oust Labour.

Conservative leaders are urging party members to stay calm and predict the "Brown bubble" is sure to burst.

Patrick Dunleavy, political science professor at the London School of Economics said he expected Mr Cameron to survive. "If Brown's honeymoon fades a little bit, then by next month he (Cameron) may be looking a bit stronger again."