Turkey gives Erdogan a vote of confidence

The huge victory by Recip Tayip Erdogan and his ruling AK party will hopefully start a new chapter in Turkish politics. Mr Erdogan is the most dominant and charismatic Prime Minister since Turgut Ozal in the 1980s, and his party, which is rooted in political Islam, has now been transformed into a national conservative party, and is the dominant centre-right party within the Turkish political spectrum. Some analysts also like to compare AK to Europe's Christian Democrats, which I think is quite a reasonable observation.

This election was held as a result of a dispute over AK's initial choice for President, Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, which was opposed by the secular Opposition and the army. Mr Gul's wife wears a headscarf, and the Presidency is meant to be a bastion of secularism. So this, coupled with the fact that the secularists accuse the AK party of having a secret Islamist agenda, was too much to accept for both the opposition and the army.

The military, which considers itself the nation's ultimate defender of secularism, had issued a warning on its Website on April 27 stating it would not hesitate to intervene in the interests of the secular state, something which became known as the e-coup. The possibility of another army coup - it would have been the fifth in Turkey since 1960 - once again cropped up and Mr Erdogan had no choice but to call a snap election.

The electoral result was a huge boost for Mr Erdogan, AK, which got 47 per cent of the vote, an increase of 13 per cent, and 341 seats in the 550-seat Parliament. The secular centre-left Republican People's Party (CHP) got 20.6 per cent, an increase of only 1.2 per cent, and 112 seats, while the right-wing Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), also secular, managed to reach the 10 per cent threshold by getting 14 per cent of the popular vote and 70 seats. Significantly, the independent candidates got 27 seats, mainly Kurds, by standing as a common group and consequently received over 10 per cent of the vote.

Although the army is widely respected in Turkey - it is in fact the most trusted institution - Mr Erdogan's huge victory proves that most Turks supported the government in its dispute with the military and sent a clear signal to the army not to intervene any further in politics. In a way, therefore, this election can be described as a victory for democracy.

However, the clash with the military was not the only reason why the AK party increased its share of the vote. Mr Erdogan's government has carried out sweeping political and economic reforms which enabled the country to officially open EU membership negotiations. Furthermore, AK has proved to be a "party of the people" with widespread support through the country and various socio-economic groups. Mr Erdogan is regarded as a politician who has his hand firmly on the pulse of the electorate.

The fact that the hardline Nationalist Movement Party got a substantial share of the vote - 13 per cent - is cause for concern but it does show some voters' frustration with Turkey's EU bid as well as opposition to the US invasion of Iraq.

Now that both the Nationalists as well as the Kurds are in Parliament, we can expect some clashes to occur between these two groups. During the election campaign, for example, MHP leader Davlet Bahceli promised to reintroduce the death penalty - which was banned in 1999 - and said he would hang the imprisoned Kurdish leader, Abdullah Ocalan, if his party won the election. A hangman's noose was even displayed at an MHP rally.

Now that the election is over, one hopes that the AK party will act with restraint and compromise - as it promised to do in the campaign. Mr Erdogan must be careful when dealing with the army and his choice of presidential candidate. Mr Gul has said he might well be a presidential candidate but that the issue will be resolved through consensus.

My personal opinion is that Mr Gul should not be a candidate because his Presidency will not be a unifying factor in Turkey, even though he has all the qualities to be President. Mr Erdogan will need the help of the Opposition to bring about certain reforms so he should think of nominating a candidate who is acceptable to everyone.

On the whole Europe welcomed Mr Erdogan's victory. The European Enlargement Commissioner, Olli Rehn, said: "It is essential that the new government re-launches legal and economic reforms with full determination." This, of course, must be a priority for Turkey. Mr Erdogan is in fact credited with introducing sweeping economic and political reforms and the Turkish stock market jumped five per cent after the AK Party victory.

One also hopes that the army will fully respect the electoral result and the European Union makes its clear that it will not tolerate any interference by the military in Turkish politics. Furthermore, the army must not be allowed to even consider invading northern Iraq in order to crush Kurdish separatists.

Mr Erdogan must tread carefully but firmly. He must continue to shape his party along the lines of Europe's mainstream centre-right parties, continue to pursue EU membership for Turkey - even though French President Nicholas Sarkozy says he is opposed to this, be a force for unity and moderation in Turkey, deal tactfully with the army, reach out to the opposition and continue with his pro-business reforms. Mr Erdogan will need all his skills and enhanced authority as he begins his second term in office.