Looking globally, do you invest locally?

The "comeback-and-go-beyond" theory holds that no matter how low a stock market slumps, it will, eventually, not only pick up to its previous all-time high, but also climb beyond to heights previously unimagined - or thought impossible.

In the table below we have looked at the performance of eight indices following the 2000 market peak - three European ones, three American and two from the Far East. The percentage drop from peak to trough was "least" for the US Dow Jones with a fall of 37.85%.

Interestingly, the three American Indices - the Dow, the S&P 500 (-49.15%) and the US tech-laden Nasdaq (-77.93%) - all bottomed on October 9, 2002.

The European indices all followed suit on March 12, 2003, with losses led by the DAX, down a whopping 72.68% - just 5% less than the Nasdaq - followed by the CAC 40, down an equally substantial 65.29%, and the FTSE 100's fall of 52.57%. Both the Hang Seng (-54.05%) and the Nikkei (-80.45%) hit their bear bottoms within three days of each other in April 2003.

The "comeback", from that stage of collapse to the levels as we write, has been nothing short of miraculous. How else would you describe the 264% gain in the DAX, the Hang Seng's 168% and incredibly identical comebacks of 138% each for both the Nikkei and the Nasdaq? And this in a period of just over four years.

In Malta, as usual, we do things differently! Between January 24, 2000, and October 30, 2002, in line with international markets, the MSE Index dropped 56%. However, we practised our own style of "comeback-and-go-beyond" when the MSE Index closed at 4,031.46, just 18 points higher that its 2000 all-time high, on October 4, 2005. Between then and March 28, 2006, it gained a thumping 65% in less than six months.

So does one buy into global markets for the "go-beyond" phase, or the local market which, following its 65% "go-beyond" has since dropped 27%?

As our guru du jour would put it, "people who wait for events to drive prices often get trapped and trampled by stampedes".

With a turnover of just under Lm360,000, there was no danger of a stampede on the MSE last week. The MSE plodded along, trading in fits and starts, as can be seen by the lacklustre totals on individual equities.

Unusually, the most active equity was Lombard Bank plc (LOM), which surpassed both HSBC Bank Malta plc (HSB) and Bank of Valletta plc (BOV) in market value turnover, accounting for 26% of the week's total.

International Hotel Investments plc (IHI) was the best performer, up 4% followed by Malta International Airport (MIA)'s 2.7% and GlobalCapital plc (GCL)'s 2.3%. The downside was happily nearly non-existent with the worst performer, Simonds Farsons Cisk plc (SFC) down a sheltered 1%. The MSE index closed at 4,855.378 up 1% for the week.

BOV was off its lows, opening the week 4c9 higher at Lm3.60, advancing to Lm3.62 by the close. Volume however was a poor 1,290 shares. The closing price was not sustained as BOV fell back to Lm3.60 on Tuesday, ending the day at Lm3.61 on a 346-share deal.

Wednesday's two deals were effected at Lm3.60, as were most of Thursday's. The last session of the week was also the busiest one, although turnover was still slow at 5,935 shares.

The price advanced 1c to Lm3.61, ending the week 1.6% higher. Turnover totalled 17,784 shares for a value of Lm64,088. At the end of trading, best bids totalled 1,336 shares at Lm3.609, with a supply of 1,500 shares at Lm3.61.

HSB did not rock the boat, opening and closing Monday unchanged at Lm1.90. Tuesday's taciturn session saw 4,400 shares changing hands as the price slipped 1c to Lm1.89, the price at which Wednesday's 1,500 shares traded.

Volume picked up somewhat on Thursday as 13,700 shares traded steadily at Lm1.90. Friday saw, incredibly, just one deal for 2,527 shares at Lm1.901 for HSB to end the week a miniscule 1 mil ahead.

Turnover for the five days totalled 46,467 shares, which accounted for Lm88,240. At the end of trading, the price was supported by a bid for 2,473 shares at Lm1.903, and the best offer for 10,000 shares stood at Lm1.95.

Maltacom plc (MLC) first traded on Tuesday. The day's 10,000 shares were negotiated in an eight-minute span, which saw the price initially dip 2c to Lm1.43 then advance to Lm1.45 to close the day unchanged.

Wednesday's trade was restricted to one put through for just 446 shares at Lm1.45 and Thursday saw just one deal for 1,000 shares on the open market at Lm1.445. Friday again saw just one put-through at Lm1.445 and no trade at the open.

MLC thus ended the week a marginal 0.3% lower. A total 12,646 shares were traded for a value of Lm18,160. At the end of Friday's session, the best bid was for 2,500 shares at Lm1.42 and the best offer for 1,000 shares at Lm1.44.

On Friday MLC announced that Peter Gauci resigned from director of Mobile Operations.

MIA was barely off its 2007 low of Lm1.315, trading in a narrow range of Lm1.318 to Lm1.316 in patchy trading on Tuesday. A matched deal for 1,482 shares took the price back up to Lm1.35 on Thursday.

MIA did not trade again to end the week 2.7% higher. Total activity for the week was a sparse 4,982 shares for a value of Lm6,611. At the end of the session, best bids were for 1,000 shares at Lm1.32 and offers for 2,800 shares started at Lm1.345.

IHI was only active towards the end of the week. On Thursday it opened unchanged at €1, advancing 3c in the final deal. On Friday one deal for 2,305 shares was effected a cent higher at €1.04 for IHI to end the week up 4%, making this equity the Official List's best performer.

LOM was, comparatively speaking, brimming with activity as 15,988 shares traded on Wednesday. The equity traded in a narrow range of Lm4.935 to Lm4.94, closing at the latter price. Thursday's first deal was struck at this level with the second and final one negotiated at Lm5 for LOM to close the week 1.2% higher.

Turnover for the two days amounted to 18,818 shares for a market value of Lm92,994, the highest last week. On Wednesday LOM announced that the Board will be meeting on August 7 to consider and approve the Group's and the Bank's financial statements for the half-year ended June 30.

GCL only traded on Monday; it opened 2c lower but advanced steadily to higher ground, closing the day 2.3% ahead at a 2007 high of Lm2.20, just one mil ahead of the January 10 high at Lm2.199. The day's - and week's - volume was a robust 33,185 shares for a value of Lm71,409.

Both Middlesea Insurance plc (MSI) and Grand Harbour Marina plc (GHM) only traded on Tuesday. MSI saw 1,538 shares changing hands, unchanged at Lm1.75 and 1,000 shares in GHM were swapped a fraction lower at 75c6.

On Monday, MSI announced that at the AGM all ordinary resolutions were approved, including the payment of a dividend of 4c5 on July 4 to shareholders on the Register on May 28. The Extraordinary Resolution regarding the company buying its own shares was also approved.

SFC started the week unchanged at 99c, losing a cent in the final deal to 98c. It was only active again on Friday, stable at 98c to close the week 1% down.

On Wednesday Santumas Shareholdings plc announced that at a meeting held on June 28, the board resolved to distribute, out of tax exempt profits, an interim dividend of 2c per share to shareholders on the Register tomorrow.

In the Government Bond market, turnover by value reached Lm10.34 million with 23 issues traded. In the corporate bond market there were 22 deals for a total turnover value of Lm37,103.

Turnover value in the Treasury Bill market totalled Lm562,752.

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