Conclusions on the Maltese view on current aspects of national politics

The launch of the new party Azzjoni Nazzjonali (AN) by Dr Josie Muscat did not come as a surprise to as many 58.3% of the Maltese electorate. On the other hand, its launch was a surprise to 36.7%. Five per cent did not want to comment when asked about this.

There were relatively more males (60.3%) who declared that they were not surprised by the announcement than there were females (56.5%). The least surprised were persons aged 36-40 (61.4%) and members of the DE socio-economic group (70.1%).

When Azzjoni Nazzjonali was first launched, a set of five cardinal principles were enunciated, namely: a) control on illegal migrants who would be kept in Malta for only one month, b) a position in favour of hunting and trapping; c) control of social services to avoid making social services an easy option; d) the re-enforcement of traditional family values; and e) the right to private initiative and property ownership.

All the participants in this study were asked whether they agreed with these principles.

The study shows that AN has hit the nail squarely on four of the issues they have taken a position on. Support for their stance in respect of "control of illegal migration, allowing only one month stay in Malta", was found to be 76%; in respect of "control of social services to avoid them becoming an easy option", public support was found to be 94%; in respect of the enforcement of traditional family values, public support amounted to 87.3%; and in respect of the "right to private initiative and property ownership" support was recorded at 68%.

Only in respect of a position "in favour of hunting and trapping" was public support found to be much less, at 32%. The high level of support for the four issues is not limited to one social group, even if it varies slightly from issue to issue. Lack of support for hunting and trapping is equally strong in all the four socio-economic groups.

Government sources are currently claiming that the economy is expanding and moving out of a period of relative stagnation. The study sought to explore whether this is a perception the Maltese have. The results obtained show that this is not a universal perception.

In effect, only 9.7% categorically agreed with the claim. Another 37% agreed, but pointed out that this is not true for all the economic sectors. As many as 46% said that they do not think that this is true, and 1.3% said that they did not know enough to be able to make a judgment either way. The remaining 6% refused to answer the question.

Interestingly, the categorical agreement that the economy is on an upturn was uniformly found to be present among all the socio-economic groups. Instead, the view that this is true but not in all the economic sectors, revealed significant differences across the socio-economic groups, probably in reflection of how the relative segment in which the individuals actually operate.

Thus 36% of the AB group opted for this position, as did 29.4% of those in the C1 group. In contrast, there were as many as 40.6% and 42.9% of persons, respectively, in the C2 and DE socio-economic groups, who admitted that the economy was expanding but noted that this was not taking place uniformly across the different economic segments.

The study carried a set of questions on the performance of the political parties at present. The first question was about which, of the four parties that have already declared that they will contest the next general elections, is the most persuasive.

The findings show that the most persuasive party at present is the MLP, with a national average of 55.3%. In this respect it is appealing almost equally to both males and females (56.2% males vs 54.5% females).

The MLP is being most persuasive to persons aged 65+ (71.1%), followed by those aged 16-25 (63.8%). It is most persuasive to persons in the C1 socio-economic group (59.8%), followed by persons in the C2 group (55.2%).

In contrast, the PN is being perceived as the most persuasive by 39.3% of all the Maltese. In this respect it is again appealing almost equally to both males and females (38.4% males vs 40.3% females).

The PN is being most persuasive to persons aged 51-65 (45.7%), followed by those aged 36-50 (43.2%). It is most persuasive to persons in the AB socio-economic group (48%), followed by persons in the C2 group (41.7%).

Being persuasive and actually being attractive are not the same, since persuasiveness on its own does not necessarily translate itself into a vote, particularly in a situation in which two parties dominate the political scene by their vast support.

In view of this, the Maltese were next asked which of the two main political parties is attracting them more at the present moment. This study shows that the PN is attracting 40% of the Maltese while the MLP is attracting 56%. The remaining 4% did not answer this question.

Consistently with what they had said in reply to the earlier question, more females were being attracted by the PN than males. The situation reverses itself in respect of the MLP. Interestingly, the MLP is being attractive to a much larger number of young persons aged 16-25 than the PN (MLP 63.8% vs PN 34%). The situation almost replicated itself in respect of persons aged 65+ (MLP 68.9% vs PN 31.1%).

In view of the recent studies that indicated that the Maltese want their government to give more heed to what they want to say, the Maltese were also asked whether they thought that in the past few weeks the Nationalist government was actually doing so.

Only 36.7% said that this is not true. The rest appear to be acknowledging that a change in attitude has been taking place recently. In fact, six per cent said that this is true without any qualifications to their answer, and 57% acknowledged this shift but commented that this is not taking place in all the sectors.

The detailed figures show that, of those who did not qualify their positive answers, persons in the C1 and C2 socio-economic sectors are the ones that are feeling the shift most, to the extent that they respectively register a much higher positive response than is done by other socio-economic groups: AB: 4%; C1: 9.8%; C2: 6.3% and DE: 1.3%.

In turn, the group where the highest percentage of "Yes, but not in all the sectors" was the AB group, at 68%, which is 9% more than the overall average for this position. C2 registered the lowest percentage in this regard, at 54.2%.

In a similar study to this carried in The Sunday Times last March, all the respondents taking part in a similar study to this were asked an open-ended question on which issues, according to them, would dominate the election campaign. Absolutely no prompting was allowed.

This same question was repeated in this study, thus allowing one to note shifts in the electorate's mood. Over the period March-June important shifts can be noted. "Water and electricity bills" 52.7% (March: 33.7%) was spontaneously listed by the largest number of people as the most important issue. It has now been mentioned by 19% more than it had been in March.

The next three issues spontaneously mentioned were: "Economy/National debt": 52.3% (March: 37.3%); "Cost of living because of Euro": 45% (March: 33.7%); and "the Environment": 30.7% (27.7%). Once again, a change in the level of mention is noted in these three issues, with economic issues now becoming more important.

These were in turn followed by: "Mater Dei/Health": 28% (12.3%); "Liberalisation": 28% (5.3%); "Roads": 27.3% (17.3%); "Hunting and Trapping": 26.3% (35.7%); "Divorce": 22.7% (11%); "Foreign policy": 19% (7.3%); and "Education": 16.7% (21.3%).

In this study, "Work and employment opportunities" was not an issue that was spontaneously mentioned as a major issue, even though last March it was considered important and in effect was then mentioned by as many as 18.3%.

Even a cursory glance at public and private political debate in Malta shows that the main political parties disagree on most issues. To measure the extent to which the Maltese at large think that this is so, all the respondents were asked to indicate whether they thought there was agreement in the vision and policy of the two main parties in respect of ten specific issues, namely education, foreign policy, social policy, liberalisation, the environment, hunting and trapping, the economy and public debt, cost of living increase as a result of the introduction of the euro, divorce and water and electricity bills. Once more, direct comparison with the results of an identical question made in last March is possible.

The Maltese confirmed that, on practically all these issues, disagreement is rife. But important shifts have taken place and the parties are being conceived to be closer to each other on a good number of issues. However, on the issue of divorce, the distance between the parties is now seen to be wider: since last March the number of those who said that the parties "disagree" was 46.7%; now 85.7% are of that opinion.

The issues on which the parties disagree most remain the economy/public debt, the euro-related cost of living increases, and the water and electricity bills issues, even though, in respect of these three issues, the difference between the parties is perceived to have narrowed since last March.

The last two questions in the study were quite direct: How did you vote in the last general elections; and how do you intend to vote in general elections if they were to be held tomorrow? Once more, these two questions replicate those asked in March, providing longitudinal data that allows direct comparison.

The findings from these two questions must be taken together. Many prefer to be reticent on both counts: as many as 15.3% (March: 30.3%) did not disclose how they voted last, and 23% (March 29.3%) did not disclose how they would vote if an election were to be held "tomorrow".

Of those who did disclose how they voted in the last general elections, 36.7% (34.7%) said that they had voted for the MLP, 33.7% (30.7%) declared that they had voted for the NP; 5% (1.7%) voted for AD and 9.3% (2.7%) said that they had abstained.

These figures do not represent the end results of the last general elections and it is all too obvious that a good number of those who did not disclose how they had voted last had actually voted for one of the two large parties.

With 23% failing to disclose whom they will vote for if an election were to be held tomorrow, of the remaining, 34.3% (March: 35.7%) said that they will vote for the MLP, 25.7% (March: 22.3%) would vote for the NP, 3% (March: 2%) would vote for AD and 6% would vote for the new party, Azzjoni Nazzjonali (AN), which did not exist last March. The remaining 8% (March study: 10.7%) would abstain.

The party that appears to have been negatively affected since the March study is the MLP, and this despite a large number of Maltese having declared in this study that they are finding this party more persuasive and attractive than the PN, its main opponent. In contrast, it appears that the PN has gained some ground, even though it is not being perceived as the most persuasive and attractive party.

It needs to be emphasised that these two sets of statistics cannot be used with any certainty to forecast the outcome of the next general elections. Statistical analysis shows that the distribution is significant. This effectively means that the results of the elections will be decided by those who neither disclosed what they did during the last elections, nor what they will do at the next elections.

Sixty-three per cent (29 out of 46) of those who did not disclose what they did in the last general elections have also not declared their intentions on what to do now. The number of persons among those who did not disclose what they intend to do now, but who had voted for the MLP last time is 45.8%; the number of those who had voted for the NP last time is 4.2%.

Of the very few who did not disclose what they did last time (28 or 9.3% of the total sample), 10.7% (3 of the total sample) now say that they would vote for the MLP; 3.6% (of the total sample) would vote for the NP, 3.6% (1 of the total sample) would vote for AD, and 17.9% (5 of the total sample) would vote for the new party, AN. The remaining 14.3% (4 of the total sample) would still abstain. These are small numbers, and it is difficult to make projections on them as bases.

This study also throws light on the political profile of Maltese voters. There are significant gender differences among those intending to vote for the PN (males: 21.2% vs females: 29.9%). Males (35.6%) are more numerous than females (33.1%) among those who clearly stated that they would vote for the MLP.

Of those respondents who would not disclose their intentions, there are relatively more males (27.4% males vs 18.8% of the females).

From among the socio-economic groups, AB members registered the highest level of PN support, at 32%, followed by those in the C2 socio-economic group at 28.1%.

In contrast, intentions to vote for the MLP were found to be highest among persons in the DE and AB socio-economic groups, with 40.8% and 36% respectively.

Among those who would not tell, the highest percentages of respondents were registered by those belonging to the AB socio-economic category (28%).

The support rallied by the new party AN so far is highest among C1 members, at 8.8%, and among persons aged 16-25, at 8.5%. At present, there are more females who support this party than males (females: 7.2% vs males 4.8%).

Socio-economic groups:

AB - professional, managerial, administrative;

C1 - higher clerical, clerical, supervisor, skilled craftsmen and technicians, owner/manager of small business;

C2 - skilled manual workers and foremen;

DE - semi-skilled, unskilled, labourers, casual workers and persons whose income is provided by the State.