Sarkozy gets mandate for change

Nicolas Sarkozy was given a clear mandate for change in France as he defeated his Socialist rival Segolène Royal in last Sunday's presidential election with a very comfortable 53.42 per cent of the vote. In his victory speech Mr Sarkozy - who spent three days holidaying in Malta after his triumph - promised to be the President all of the French people saying: "Tonight is not a victory of one France over another. It is the victory of democracy."

The electoral campaign seems to have impressed voters, and voter turnout was at a record high of 85 per cent, showing that the electorate felt there was a clear choice between the two candidates, who represented a new, younger face of French politics. That is certainly a clear sign that France has a healthy democracy which people can relate to.

Mr Sarkozy led a formidable campaign and presented clear and concrete proposals to the electorate. He proved to be an excellent campaigner who could relate to voters' concerns and he also managed to tone down his over-aggressive rhetoric, coming across as a charismatic performer.

A major factor which led to Mr Sarkozy's victory was his ability to unite the right behind his campaign. Ever since he took over the leadership of the centre-right UMP in 2004 he managed to turn the party into a formidable political machine which spearheaded his presidential bid and which organised hundreds of meetings with voters throughout the country.

The party focused on issues which the electorate cared about, such as employment, education, social inclusion, immigration, the environment and foreign policy, and this struck a chord with the electorate.

Furthermore, Mr Sarkozy made sure that Chirac loyalists like former Prime Minister Alan Juppé were given an important role in his campaign, so the UMP was very united behind its candidate. He also received the backing of high-profile UDF personalities such as former President Valéry Giscard D'Estaing and Simone Veil, former president of the European Parliament.

Mr Sarkozy also championed tough policies on crime and immigration which attracted the support of far right voters, so the appeal by National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen to his supporters not to vote in the second round fell on deaf ears.

Opinion polls suggest that the 6.8 million votes that went to the UDF centrist candidate Francois Bayrou in the first round were evenly split between the two candidates, which was more than enough for Mr Sarkozy, who had obtained a very healthy 31 per cent in the first round. This, in addition to a united right, ensured his victory.

The Socialist Party, on the other hand, has now suffered its third consecutive presidential defeat. Initially, there seemed to be some hope for the party when it nominated Ms Royal as its candidate, initially regarded by some as a social democratic Blairite moderniser.

However, in the end it was Ms Royal who turned out to be the real conservative - she was reluctant to change the status quo. In addition, her campaign was not as effective as Mr Sarkozy's and her party was not exactly solidly behind her. She also committed a number of gaffes on foreign and economic policy, raising doubts about her presidential qualities.

Worst of all, the Socialist Party was clearly divided between left-wing Socialists and more moderate Social Democrats who often contradicted each other on policy, further embarrassing Royal in the process. A period of infighting is now expected within the party as its leader, Francois Hollande - Ms Royal's partner and father of her four children - steps down.

The French people have therefore opted for change after 12 years of President Jacques Chirac (ironically from the same party as Mr Sarkozy) where little economic reform was carried out and where economic growth was sluggish. Mr Sarkozy has pledged to cut taxes and reform labour laws in an effort to boost economic growth and create jobs. He has also said that France must work harder and reward hard work in order to compete in the globalised economy.

Mr Sarkozy has proved to be a shrewd political operator and an excellent campaigner, but will he be a good President and will he really turn out to be an economic liberal and a radical reformer? So far, there have been mixed signals. Over the past few years, when he was a Cabinet Minister, he resorted to interventionist policies, especially with regard to French industry.

His likely Prime Minister, Francois Fillion, two years ago dropped the government's educational reforms in reaction to pupil protests, and Alan Juppé, who could be appointed Foreign Minister, abandoned a major economic reform programme when he was Prime Minister 10 years ago as a result of huge protests throughout the country.

None of this means that Mr Sarkozy will not turn out to be a reformer. He has run on a clear platform for 'a clean break' with French politics of recent years and he now has a clear mandate to bring this about. Of course, we do not know just how far French society will go in accepting economic reform. Perhaps we will have our first indication next month when the country goes to the polls again, this time to elect a new National Assembly.

Should Mr Sarkozy's UMP get a large parliamentary majority, then the new President will be able to carry out his reform programme. It will be also interesting to see what type of support Mr Bayrou's new centrist Democratic Party - which has split off from the UDF - will get. However, only seven of the 29 UDF MPs have joined Mr Bayrou's new party.

On foreign policy, Mr Sarkozy is expected to try and improve relations with the United States, to set up a Mediterranean Union and to give France a more high-profile role within the European Union. He opposes Turkey's membership of the EU - I think this is a misguided policy - but perhaps he will modify his position when he fully appreciates Turkey's strategic importance. Mr Sarkozy is in favour of a mini-treaty for the EU instead of the draft constitutional treaty, which was rejected by French and Dutch voters, something which I feel is a very pragmatic approach.

France is in for a very interesting period when Nicholas Sarkozy assumes the Presidency on Wednesday. If he shows the same commitment, energy and determination to reform the French economy as he did to win the election, then France could have a very bright long-term future ahead.