The battle for France's soul

As expected, the centre-right candidate Nicholas Sarkozy and the Socialist candidate Segolène Royal emerged victorious in the first round of the French presidential election last Sunday. The two will now face each other in the second and final round today week in a left-right contest in which both candidates will try and position themselves close to the political centre and where Mr Sarkozy and Ms Royal will battle for the heart and soul of the nation.

Mr Sarkozy was the main winner of last week's election, obtaining 31 per cent of the vote - an excellent result for a first round - the second highest first round vote obtained since 1981. Ms Royal obtained a very respectable 25.7 per cent, a huge relief for the Socialist Party considering that their candidate in 2002, Lionel Jospin, was eliminated in the first round after the National Front candidate, Jean-Marie Le Pen, came second.

Another big winner after last week's vote was François Bayrou, the centrist candidate and leader of the UDF who obtained 18.5 per cent (compared to 6.84 per cent in 2002) and who has now emerged as a kingmaker - he has refused to back either of the candidates. The 6.8 million voters who supported Mr Bayrou in the first round will now effectively determine the outcome of election. The far-right candidate, Jean Marie Le Pen, was the big loser of the election - he saw his vote drop to 10.44 per cent from 16.86 per cent in 2002, when he then went into the second round against incumbent President Jacques Chirac.

Will the fact that Mr Sarkozy obtained the highest number of votes in the first round be enough for him to win next week's election? Past elections have shown that this is certainly no guarantee at all. In the first round of the 1981 election, Valerie Giscard d'Estaing obtained 28.33 per cent compared to 25.86 per cent for François Mitterrand - who then went on to beat Mr Giscard d'Estaing in the second round. In the 1995 election, Lionel Jospin obtained 23.30 per cent in the first round to 20.84 per cent for Jacques Chirac, but it was Mr Chirac who won the second round.

Everything depends, therefore, on how the voters of the failed candidates will vote in the second round. We cannot apply a simple case of arithmetic and say that voters will now realign themselves into traditional centre-left and centre-right blocs. Had that been the case, Mr Sarkozy would win the contest hands down, as the combined votes of his UMP party, Mr Bayrou's UDF, the National Front and the small right-wing Movement for France amounted to 62.73 per cent.

However, opinion polls before the election revealed that many people who supported the UDF came from the centre-left and were attracted to the centrist Mr Bayrou by his offer to appoint a Socialist Prime Minister and to head a left-right coalition government. It is also a fact that the political centre has grown considerably in France - Mr Bayrou's success is proof of this - as is the poor performance of the far-left political parties which together won 10.52 per cent compared to 21.38 per cent in the first round in 2002. Most of these former far-left voters no doubt voted for Ms Royal this time.

Furthermore, although it is likely that the majority of National Front voters will vote for Mr Sarkozy next Sunday, the centre-right candidate is unlikely to receive an official endorsement from Mr Le Pen when he gives his traditional May Day speech on Tuesday. Mr Le Pen hates Mr Sarkozy for one simple reason: he believes the centre-right candidate stole his clothes and his voters by adopting some of his policies.

In effect, Mr Sarkozy destroyed Mr Le Pen last Sunday, as his excellent performance in the first round shows. Should a large minority of National Front voters decide not to vote next week this will hurt Mr Sarkozy, but we will have a better indication on Tuesday, when Mr Le Pen gives his official recommendation on how his supporters should vote.

While the first round of the presidential election is all about rallying one's core vote - Sarkozy and Royal managed to do this very well - the second round is about uniting voters and appealing to the political centre. The successful candidate will be the one who persuades the electorate that he or she is able to unite the country and represent the nation as a whole, not just a narrow political family. The fact that Mr Sarkozy so successfully attracted votes from the far right could work against him as he attempts to woo the political centre - he needs at least half Mr Bayrou's votes to win; however, his speech immediately after last Sunday's result was excellent, dignified, presidential and, most importantly, socially inclusive and one that very strongly appealed to the centre.

On the other hand, Ms Royal - who will get most of the votes of the small left-wing parties - needs to persuade centrist voters that she has the necessary experience and leadership qualities to govern the country. She must also persuade them that she is different from previous Socialist leaders, that she is a moderniser and that she is more of a Social Democrat than a Socialist. Her offer to Mr Bayrou on Monday to form a centre-left alliance to defeat Mr Sarkozy - in return for UDF Cabinet seats in a government headed by Ms Royal - is very interesting and represented a sharp twist in the race for the Presidency.

However, Mr Bayrou has declined this offer and has refused to back either of the candidates, leaving his supporters to decide for themselves. A centre-left alliance of this nature represents Ms Royal's best chance of winning but it also shows just how the left-wing vote in France has shrunk.

Furthermore, the UDF has always been part of the centre-right political bloc. It was formed in 1978 by Mr Giscard d'Estaing principally as an alliance of the centre and non-Gaullist right and can be described a liberal party with Catholic and centrist elements. It is true that some political parties in Europe are going through a realignment process (for example the former Christian Democrats in Italy now belong to rival left- and right-wing blocs) and it is also true that Mr Bayrou believes that the French electorate is eager for a new centrist approach - but I still believe that the majority of UDF voters will support Mr Sarkozy next week.

Ultimately the winner will be the one who manages to convince voters that he or she has the appropriate programme to address France's many challenges, such as the size and role of the public sector, the restructuring of the welfare state, labour market flexibility, job and wealth creation, France's role in Europe and the world, the future of French agriculture, and immigration and the integration of France's minorities. French voters want both change and security, and the successful candidate will be the one who can convince the electorate that he or she can provide both.