Against all odds

It is uncontested that one year from a general election all political parties are compelled to delve judiciously into the outcome of local election results.

Although local election results are underscored by a general trend in voting patterns and voting participation, any attempt to predict the outcome of a general election would still be inopportune because almost a third of those eligible to vote in local elections have abstained to do so over the past three years while voting participation during a general election tends to exceed 95 per cent of the eligible electorate.

Notwithstanding this scenario, the majority of those who continually choose to abstain during local council elections traditionally belong to the party in government, as manifestly evident in Attard, Mosta, Gharghur and Swieqi. On a parallel note, when a Labour government was installed in 1996, Labour experienced the same fate in Qormi, and a Nationalist mayor was elected in 1997. In all fairness, the majority shifted again to Labour in the next round of elections, when the Nationalist government was in office.

Gharghur is one of those localities where the Nationalist-led council did a sterling job. That being stated, the percentage of abstentions was significantly high. At the same time, it must be said that the voting share of the Nationalists did not fall proportionally and the Nationalists retained a reassuring majority. This also indicates that a good share of those who abstained are nonetheless Labour voters who were not enticed to vote for a Labour majority in Gharghur.

On a separate note, Safi residents (where Labour traditionally registers a majority in general elections) continued to retain the same Nationalist mayor since the inception of local councils. This goes to prove that voters are, despite all prevailing circumstances, prone to switch party allegiance in a local election.

A quick look at the situation in Qormi reveals that the PN lost 959 votes in comparison with 2004. Labour lost 824 votes in relation to the 2004 elections, even though, according to Labour's standards, the Labour-led council performed above the 90 per cent mark. Is it therefore justified to claim that there is no swing towards Labour?

In Mosta, the Labour Party saw its voting share rise by 36 votes over the year 2004, while the Nationalists registered a substantial decrease by 840. One has to credit the Labour media in this respect, which has certainly spurred an increase in Labour support, even though the outgoing Nationalist mayor increased his voting share with over the previous election. Yet again, having a Nationalist media to rebut insinuations and put local matters on the national agenda is not necessarily a solution to win local elections when a party is in government.

Although it is sensible to establish why voters choose to abstain rather than switching their allegiance to Labour, it would be equally opportune to delve closely into the reasons why so many voters continue to abstain in certain localities more than others. It is therefore significant to establish why, in Siggiewi, the Nationalists increased their share by a relatively significant amount, registering an increase of almost three per cent over 2004. The same applies to Safi, where the Nationalist majority was retained despite the prevailing odds.

A judicious analysis of the results can only take shape following an understanding of all the odds.

An architect by profession, Mr Musumeci is mayor of Siggiewi and a PN candidate for the sixth and seventh electoral districts.

rmperiti@onvol.net