France's three-way race

Nicolas Sarkozy's resignation as France's Interior Minister last week was both expected and understandable and the centre-right UMP candidate is now able to focus entirely on his presidential campaign. Some observers believe that for a candidate who wants to detach himself from President Chirac - who is not particularly popular with the electorate - Mr Sarkozy should have left the government earlier. However, now that he has stepped down he is free to speak his mind and continue to stress how he believes France needs a new approach in tackling its social and economic issues.

Surprisingly, France's presidential contest has developed into a three-way race between Mr Sarkozy, Socialist candidate Ségolene Royal and Francois Bayrou, the head of the centrist UDF. An opinion poll released by the Ipsos agency for Le Point news weekly last Sunday suggested Mr Sarkozy could take 30 per cent of the vote on April 22 (the first round), with Ms Royal getting 25.5 per cent and Mr Bayrou 19 per cent.

In all, 12 candidates have qualified to run in the presidential election. Besides the three leading candidates the other contenders are National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, anti-globalisation activist José Bove, Communist Party leader Marie-George Buffet, Trotskyite Arlette Laguiller, Communist Revolutionary League leader Olivier Besancenot, Green Party leader Dominique Voynet, far-right Movement for France leader Philippe de Villiers, Hunting, Fishing, Nature and Traditions Party leader Frederic Nihous and leftist, anti-EU mayor Gerard Schivardi.

The two candidates with the most votes will then face each other in a run-off election two weeks later, unless one candidate gets over 50 per cent of the vote, which is virtually impossible, considering that there are so many contenders.

The success of Mr Bayrou's campaign has taken many observers by surprise, especially Mr Sarkozy and Ms Royal, but his success in the polls says a lot about what the electorate thinks about the two leading candidates. Mr Bayrou, who only received 6.84 per cent of the vote in 2002, says he wants to bridge what he calls the 'prehistoric' left-right divide in France.

Mr Bayrou's surge in the polls could be explained by the electorate's suspicion of both Mr Sarkozy and Ms Royal, rather than a strong ideological support for him. Mr Sarkozy might be considered too right-wing for some voters; after all, he is trying very hard to court the far right vote which usually goes to the National Front, and which is not doing well in the polls. On the other hand, many traditional centre-left voters are not yet convinced that Ms Royal is the right candidate for the job, while others believe that she lacks the will to modernise the Socialist Party.

Although Mr Bayrou's political roots are with the centre-right - the UDF was a creation of former President Valery Giscard D'Estaing - since 2002 he has refused to join the governing UMP bloc, has opposed the government on important issues and even voted with the opposition in a no-confidence vote. Such a stand was certainly not lost on centre-left voters. Mr Bayrou, a staunch Catholic, can probably best be described as a left-leaning Christian Democrat, similar to Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi.

The fact remains, however, that his experience in government is limited to only serving in centre-right governments between 1993 and 1997, and in the past he always aligned himself with the centre-right political groupings. So it would seem that Mr Bayrou is somewhat of an opportunist. This is being used against him by his opponents. Jack Lang, a former Socialist minister and now top aide to Ms Royal, says Mr Bayrou is "a variant of the right". Mr Sarkozy made the same point saying that "all UDF parliamentarians have been elected with votes from the centre and the right".

The main plank of Mr Bayrou's election programme is a unity government that would include politicians from both the right and the left. He has even suggested that if elected, he might choose a Socialist as Prime Minister.

Somehow I feel this is the last thing France needs. Mr Bayrou has a tiny party in Parliament, so he will lack the authority needed to really bring about the economic changes that France needs. Furthermore, I don't see a left-right coalition working well in France. Cohabitation between a President and a government from different parties is one thing - it is the government that decides domestic policy - but a right-left coalition government, in my opinion, would be a recipe for gridlock. The parties simply differ too much over important economic and social issues.

Mr Bayrou will probably continue to do well in the polls - he could even come second in the first round of the election and eliminate one of the two leading candidates, although I doubt this will happen - both Mr Sarkozy and Ms Royal have to appeal to their core electorate, which no doubt will create a vacuum in the political centre.

Ms Royal's manifesto consists of a 100-point platform with a strong emphasis on social programmes, promising a higher minimum wage and the construction of more low-rent housing. She has also tried to appeal to centrist voters by presenting a modern image of her party. Mr Sarkozy has also tried to appeal to voters of all persuasions, while bringing up many traditional right-wing themes, such as law and order. Ultimately, however, in the first round of French presidential elections candidates have little room for manoeuvre as the field is very crowded.

In the first round of the presidential election in 2002 we were all shocked when Jean-Marie Le Pen of the far-right National Front came second and edged out the Socialist candidate, Prime Minister Lionel Jospin. Will we be in for another surprise this time and witness either Mr Sarkozy or Ms Royal exit the scene as a result of an upset performance by Mr Bayrou? Probably not, but the French electorate is very unpredictable, so anything is possible.