A bubble or a bang

A month before the crucial first round of the French presidential elections, the burning question is: Will we see a bubble burst on April 22 or hear a big bang during the parliamentary elections in June?

The bubble and the bang are both connected to the presidential candidacy of Francois Bayrou, leader of the small centrist party, Union for French Democracy (UDF).

Up till around the second week of February, the presidential electoral campaign was dominated by the candidate of the centre-right Gaullist UMP, Nicolas Sarkozy, and by the candidate of the Socialist Party, Ségolène Royal. Apart from Mr Bayrou, there are nine other candidates, eight of whom are insignificant; the ninth, the far-right leader, Jean-Marie Le Pen, does not look set to repeat his 2002 achievement of second place.

In a poll published on February 10, Mr Sarkozy peaked at 36 per cent and Ms Royal took her first hit in the polls. Mr Bayrou began his ascent, leaving the 12 per cent ballpark well behind him. Late last week he equalled Ms Royal at 23 per cent, running behind Mr Sarkozy at 29 per cent.

Some people believe that the Bayrou surge is a bubble, which will burst over the next four weeks. His centrist profile is considered to have a greater affinity with the centre-right. It is assumed that most of his voters are being attracted away from Mr Sarkozy. On last week's polls, therefore, it would mean that the centre-right vote would have added up to some 52 per cent of the national vote, a share of the vote that the centre-right has never captured in the first round of presidential elections.

Therefore, these observers conclude, one of the two candidates must be over-valued in the polls. The alleged support is a bubble.

In 1995, there was a similar situation featuring Jacques Chirac and Eduard Balladur. The latter was leading the polls for a while and then did not even make it into the second round.

Given the consistent solidity of support for Mr Sarkozy this time round, it must be Mr Bayrou's vote that is volatile. And indeed the latest poll, published on Sunday, saw his share take the first dip of the campaign - down to 21 per cent, trailing Ms Royal by some four points.

Other observers have a different take. They note that, in 1995, Mr Chirac, the eventual winner, came from behind. The equivalent of the Balladur candidacy, they suggest, may be that of the socialist Ms Royal.

After initial popularity with the voters, Ms Royal has widely come to be seen as out of her depth.

First, she treated the big beasts of the Socialist Party - the "elephants" - with a misjudged disdain that increased their animosity towards her. The allies of at least two of them, Laurent Fabius and Dominique Strauss-Kahn, have been leaking against her. On Tuesday, a former senior collaborator of Ms Royal (another victim of her weakness for conspicuous disdain) published an attack accusing her of incompetence and of being unable to fund her promises.

Second, Ms Royal has made several gaffes that have alienated important segments of her base. For example, a comment that teachers should work harder enraged a group that, in its vast majority, votes socialist. Other gaffes - such as not knowing how many nuclear submarines France has (two, hardly difficult to remember) - suggested ill preparation for office.

Mr Bayrou is making inroads against some of Ms Royal's base - for example, teachers, with whom he was popular when Minister for Education in the mid-1990s. The socialists have reacted by accusing Mr Bayrou of being a closet right-winger, but some of the candidates on his party ticket are known to be socialists, from the right of that party; people associated with the former Prime Minister, Michel Rocard.

For the second group of observers, Mr Bayrou may well edge Ms Royal out and make it into second place, after Mr Sarkozy. In a second round against anyone, Mr Bayrou is widely expected to win.

He appears more assured in comparison with Ms Royal, and more assuring compared with Mr Sarkozy, who is a divisive figure. Mr Sarkozy has a readiness to offend segments of the electorate (although even the seemingly most off-the-cuff remarks have been carefully studied) that makes voters wonder whether he could manage that alchemy they expect of a President: the embodiment of France.

The second round in May will be followed by parliamentary elections in June. Mr Bayrou's UDF is not a party of government. The Gaullist and the Socialist parties are therefore advising people that a vote for Mr Bayrou would be pointless since he would be unable to govern.

But this is an argument that is resented by many people because in effect it tells them that their actual preferences should follow only the choices put to them by the two major parties. And France is a country where the electorate has several times frustrated the major parties, imposing political "cohabitation" between an adversarial President and Prime Minister.

Some observers are therefore suggesting that voters may well ignore warnings about Mr Bayrou's ability to govern. He may win the presidency.

What happens next could be a parliamentary big bang, where the divisions among the socialists would lead to many of them breaking away to serve under Mr Bayrou, and some Gaullists would also join him.

There is speculation that Ms Royal's socialist rival, Mr Strauss-Kahn, would be willing to serve as Prime Minister under President Bayrou. Mr Strauss-Kahn has denied this more than once. But a week of flat denial is a short time in politics.