The combined gross weight of the worldwide cruise liner fleet was reported, as of January 1, 2004, to be of around 10.9 million tons spread on 339 seafaring vessels. Each of these passenger ships may carry hundreds or even thousands of people (passengers and crew) depending on the size of the vessel.
Sixty per cent of the market is controlled by 10 companies. In 2004 it was reported that some 12 million people took a cruise. Only 4% of them resided in Asia and the South Pacific, the rest were from North America (78%) and Europe (18%).
Cruises were mainly concentrated in three regions: the Caribbean (46%), the Mediterranean (21%) and Alaska (8%). The Business Research and Economic Advisers (2005) report the cruise liner industry as pumping some $14.7 billion into the North American economy.
The geographic and economic concentration of this industry makes it an attractive target for terrorist attacks. The presence of a large number of people in a confined space lures a terrorist attack since human casualties are maximised. Also, cruise ships are iconic in nature since they symbolise the affluent and materialistic Western lifestyle so despised and hated by Al-Qaeda-inspired groups or individuals.
Cruises are mostly frequented by people of a Judeo-Christian faith, hence the effectiveness of such an attack would be much greater. In addition, the attackers may have reason to believe that other Muslims or Muslim interests will not likely be hit as secondary targets.
Moreover a strike on this type of ocean-faring vessel will surely result in a worldwide media resonating phenomenon that is so much sought after by Jihadi terrorists. An example of this, on a smaller scale, was the attack of the Seabourn Spirit in November 2005 off the coast of Somalia. A similar attack on a bigger scale that would see a larger vessel involved will surely help recruitment into Jihadi terrorist groups while being instrumental in boosting the morale of existing members in all Al-Qaeda-inspired terrorist groups.
There exist a number of modalities with which terrorist groups may act. Here are six possible scenarios for terrorist attacks on cruise liners.
• The hijacking of a cruise liner together with the passengers on board is one possible scenario. Such an attack would be similar to the Achille Lauro incident in 1985, where terrorists take over the ship and threaten to kill or hurt the passengers if their demands are not met.
• The use of a boat-borne Improvised Explosive Device (IED) with the intention of severely damaging and possibly sinking a cruise ship is another possible scenario. This incident would be similar to those involving the USS Cole and the French super tanker M/V Limburg which were both attacked in this fashion in Yemeni waters. Also in 2005, Al-Qaeda-linked militant Lu'ai Sakra was charged in a Turkish court with planning to use a similar method to sink Israeli cruise ships in the Mediterranean.
• Attaching a submersible parasitic device to a part of the hull that lies beneath the waterline of a cruise ship. Divers are usually employed to attach this explosive device.
• A suicide bomber boarding a cruise ship with the intention of detonating himself/herself injuring or even killing other people on board.
• An assault on a cruise liner employing both light or heavy weaponry. The attack would be launched from sea or land. This is similar to the Seabourn Spirit attack of 2005.
• Contamination of a cruise liner's food or water supply. The results would be similar to the virus outbreak on the Mariner of the Seas.
Security measures employed by cruise ships are less stringent than those applied for commercial aviation. Bags may not always be meticulously X-rayed. Although members of the crew may be screened, not all service and maintenance employees at foreign docks are screened. These employees usually have a low salary and hence may be more easily lured into accepting bribes by members of terrorist groups to smuggle aboard cruise liners hazardous material or lethal weaponry and ammunition that consequently would be used in a terrorist attack.
It is customary for cruise ships to organise stops anchoring offshore for long hours to enable passengers to tour different locations. It is during these times that these luxurious vessels are most prone to collision assaults by vessels that are fast-moving and heavily laden with explosives.
The traditional waving and cheering of passengers by onlookers at ports during arrival and departure could also create a security hazard since both groups of people, those on the decks and those on the docks, are vulnerable to land-based strikes from Rocket Propelled Grenades (RPGs), shoulder-launched missiles or by snipers using rifles.
Also, cruise liners operate in accordance with a pre-planned and highly advertised time-table. This makes it very easy for terrorist groups to pick up a most feasible time and place where to strike.
Notwithstanding this, sinking a cruise ship requires deep naval architectural knowledge of the details on the construction of a particular ship. Bombs and impacts have to be strategically located at various weak points, since these vessels have hulls that are double-lined and water tight compartments, though not all compartments are water tight in order to facilitate wide open areas that are characteristic of the recreational and luxury oriented nature of these vessels.
Attack scenarios vary in complexity. A bomb could be constructed aboard the ship using materials that can be either found or smuggled on board, since these are not intrinsically lethal, hence they can even pass undetected through security checks.
At the most complicated end of the spectrum one would find the employment of parasitic bombs, since these require underwater maritime combat techniques and knowledge of the ship's naval architecture.
Other genres of terrorist attacks would lie between these two extremes. The deployment of standoff artillery will require terrorists to fire accurately at the prescribed target, unless self-aiming weaponry is acquired. Military training and capabilities would be of paramount importance if boarding and hijacking a cruise liner are considered, unless terrorists board themselves as passengers or crew. Technical knowledge is also required if terrorists choose to ram a cruise ship with an IED on board a fast-moving vessel or if food and water contamination are considered.
The consequences of terrorist attacks on cruise ships may be both human and economic, but they also depend on the dimensions of the cruise liner attacked. The loss of human life factor may depend on the severity of the attack but also on the size of the cruise ship. Since the largest cruise ships may carry up to 3,000 passengers and 1,000 crew, casualties and fatalities may well range into thousands.
Economic consequences may also include compensation for injuries and loss of life and increased security costs that may include both capital expenditure and also running costs in order to keep up with the running of these security measures. In addition, this will also be coupled with a decrease in the demand for cruise liner holidays.
Joseph M. Attard, B.Psych. (Hons), M.Sc. (Leicester), is a former member of the Counter Terrorism Unit of the Malta Police Force