The Labour Party is understandably euphoric after yesterday week's local elections. It has not only increased its share of the vote in the 22 localities involved by three percentage points, but also widened its lead over the Nationalist Party by almost ten percentage points.

Labour spokesmen described their party's advance, in which it overturned Nationalist majorities in Gzira, Xaghra and Mosta (hitherto a PN 'safe seat'), as the fifth straight electoral victory in a row since the MLP lost the general election of 2003: four rounds of local elections, and the European Parliament election of June 12, 2004, where Labour won three seats to the Nationalists' two.

Compared to that election (which also coincided with that year's local elections), turnout this time was 68 per cent - 14 per cent less, and four per cent less than the elections held in the same localities in 2001. So the question begs itself: do the latest results reflect a surge in anti-government feeling, or as Labour leader Alfred Sant put it on Sunday, "a call for change", or is it a matter of voter fatigue, if not apathy?

For instance, some 7,000 electors did not bother to pick up their voting document. Significantly, 920 of those were from Swieqi alone, a traditional Nationalist stronghold, where, incidentally, voter turnout was the lowest, at 53 per cent. Similarly, 547 residents of Zebbug, Gozo, which includes the summer resort of Marsalforn, failed to pick up their voting documents. This is almost a quarter of those registered in that locality, but in fact they are mostly Maltese who give their summer residence address on their ID card in order to qualify for reduced Gozo ferry fares. Again, most of them are presumed to be Nationalist voters.

And, if one had to read the results in a "national" key, one would say that it is more likely for opponents of the central government to vote in local elections than it is for its supporters to do so. Yet, as former Labour minister Lino Spiteri comments in this issue, the fact is that the MLP obtained 3,326 fewer votes in this round than it did in the same localities in 2004 (the corresponding figure for the PN was a drop of 6,600 votes).

Alternattiva Demokratika, fielding just seven candidates this time, did reasonably well, electing a councillor at Swieqi and Attard (a gain from the Nationalists), and just missing electing one at Munxar by two votes.

Nevertheless, it is the Nationalist Party which should be most worried about the results. One lesson which should be drawn is that, perhaps more than usual this time, voters did put local issues before national considerations. Else how could one explain the fact that the Nationalists actually increased their share of the vote in Siggiewi (where the council has been performing well) and Santa Lucija (where the Labour-led council may not have come up to expectations)?

On the other hand, the Nationalist-led councils at Mosta, Attard, Gzira and Swieqi came in for a drubbing (with Labour actually winning control of Mosta for the first time) because of real or presumed inefficiencies, delays or simply a question of delivering too little and too late. Where Labour councils have performed well, they have been handsomely rewarded.

So, are Dr Sant and the Labour Party wrong to read too much into the results? We all know that turnouts in general elections are usually in the mid-90s, so already any comparisons with local elections would be faulty. However, if the perception prevails that, despite an improvement in the country's economic situation, people's quality of life has not improved, then Labour could easily benefit from the changed electoral mood at the general election, which could be less than one year away.

The Nationalist government is obviously hoping that the voters' natural tendency to change the party in office after ten years (19 if one excludes the two-year Labour interval of 1996-98) will be subordinated to a strong feel-good factor as a number of "chickens" come home to roost: the opening of the new, state-of-the-art Mater Dei Hospital later this year; the flow of EU funds, amounting to €855 million for seven years, as from this year; the gradual coming on stream of the SmartCity project; the hoped-for upturn in tourism, and a possible drop in international oil prices, allowing the stifling water and electricity surcharge to be reduced further.

However, the government must not to let other issues get out of hand: unbridled building development is coming up against strong opposition by various residents' groups, as is its equivocal position on spring hunting. Here, Alternattiva could be the beneficiary of PN voters' disgruntlement, which means that Labour will get in - by default.