Brown gets bad poll news

Tony Blair's likely successor as British prime minister suffered a blow yesterday when a newspaper poll showed voters far preferred the leader of the main opposition party.

The poll in The Guardian newspaper showed the opposition Conservatives with a nine-point lead over Mr Blair's Labour Party when voters were asked which party they would choose.

Worryingly for finance minister Gordon Brown, who is almost certain to replace Mr Blair later this year, the lead widened to 13 points when voters were asked if they preferred the Conservatives under David Cameron or Labour led by Mr Brown.

The Conservatives' 13-point lead was the largest they had scored in the Guardian/ICM poll since July 1992, just after the party won its last general election, The Guardian reported.

Political commentators cautioned against reading too much into a single poll. They said governing parties often trail in the polls in mid-term but this may not translate into a Conservative win at the next election, expected in 2009. A poll of polls published by The Independent newspaper two weeks ago showed the Conservatives with an average five-point lead over Labour. Despite Mr Brown's poor showing John Curtice, politics professor at Strathclyde University, said no one in Labour could challenge him for the leadership.

"There is no way anybody is going to succeed in displacing Gordon Brown," he said.

Mr Blair, who led Labour to three general election wins, is expected to step down in June or July after a decade in power.

Labour's popularity has been hit by the Iraq war and a political funding scandal while the Conservatives have enjoyed a boost under Mr Cameron who has worked to give the party a more caring, environmentally friendly image.

The poll showed Mr Cameron's standing was not damaged by his refusal this month to deny newspaper reports that he had smoked cannabis when he was a pupil at one of Britain's most exclusive schools 25 years ago.

While he has won points for his handling of the economy, Mr Brown - who celebrated his 56th birthday yesterday - suffers from a dour image. As a fellow architect of Mr Blair's centrist New Labour brand, it will be difficult for him to present himself as a fresh start, political analysts say.

Anthony King, professor of government at Essex University, said Mr Brown was part of the "old regime" and many Labour members "rather wish they could vote for someone who is fresher."

Writing in The Guardian last week, Labour deputy Frank Field said the party should consider "jumping a generation" and urged 41-year-old environment minister David Miliband to step forward.

Mr Miliband ruled himself out, though, and analysts say no one has enough backing from the party and the unions to beat Mr Brown.

Labour Member of Parliament Ian Gibson played down the poll, saying "I don't think at this stage anybody is going to panic."