Is there oil in them there waters?

An apolitical friend drew my attention to the main headline of The Times on Saturday, Libya Ready To Discuss Oil Drilling. What do you make of that, he asked, wearing a cynical smile.

He answered his own question: The general election is getting close, oil prospects are always raised as the date approaches. Maybe. But again, maybe not.

Drilling in the area which, the experts say, is most likely to contain oil in commercial quantities, does not depend only on the Maltese government. The best prospects to find oil, it is said, lie in the zones adjacent to Tunisia and Libya. It is essential to reach political agreement with both countries on prospecting in such zones. The Foreign Minister reported progress with Tunisia in that regard, during his visit to our neighbouring country last summer.

Following a meeting of the joint-committee between Malta and Libya, the Minister told the media on Friday that Libya is prepared "to discuss" oil exploration with Malta in zones adjacent to the maritime frontiers of the two countries. Joint or tri-partite exploration is the best way to approach the issue to avoid dragging legal disputes with harmful negative political fallout.

It is unlikely that the authorities of Tunisia and Libya are positioning their stance such as to aid the Nationalist government. There is no immediately apparent logical reason why they would wish to disadvantage the MLP in the run-up to the general election. In any event, readiness "to discuss" does not signal that definite agreement will be reached quickly, if at all.

The Foreign Minister said on Friday that experts from Libya and Malta will be meeting here in April "to try" to identify opportunities for cooperation. Again, the diplomatic jargon does not translate into a clear time frame within which discussions should be concluded.

Whichever party is manning it, there is very little the government can do to tie down its counterparts in Libya and Tunisia to specific dates on an issue of common interest. It would be the height of folly for the incumbent government to try to gain political mileage by transmitting the impression that there is oil in them there waters and it will gush out because of its efforts.

In the days of prospecting for the yellow precious metal in the younger America there would be much excitement at the cry "there is oil in them there hills". Not infrequently, those who rushed off to the hills would find they had been lured by no more than fools' gold. Political oil can easily become fools' oil. To suggest that the breakthrough is imminent would be equal to giving hostages to fortune.

It would be even worse for anyone to raise hopes that our economic situation can be vastly improved should we ever strike oil in commercial quantities. Such hopes would add to the ability inherent in too many of us to believe in manna from heaven, and to live beyond our means. The Maltese economy requires sustainable strengths - largely in the form of a highly skilled human resources base educated in the factors which will be required to satisfy tomorrow's demands by the global economy, and which can adapt without panic to inevitably changing circumstances.

That has to be the focus of civil society, as well as of every central administration as different parts of the political class transit through office. Someday we might find there is indeed oil in them there waters.

Should that happen it should be considered as being no more than a bonus. Meanwhile, there are far more urgent things demanding the commitment of all of us.