Somewhere between mild concern and panic is where we are today on the global warming chart. Since the latest report from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), even the sceptics are coming round to accepting this inconvenient truth.
How we live is damaging the ability of the planet to sustain life as we know it for humans, animals, plants and the fabric made up from the interweaving of these many different coloured threads of life - Earth's ecosystems.
These pressing environmental concerns are driving us to consider whether the fuels and technologies we currently use will continue to be appropriate for our future. Car manufacturers say they have already cut emissions by nearly 13 per cent and blame consumers for not buying smaller cars or hybrid-fuel models in high enough numbers.
Uncertainty now lies more with how we will unravel the fix we are in rather than whether or not we are responsible for it, as world average temperatures continue to rise. Another report by the panel later this year will look at the most effective measures for slowing global warming.
A practical "energy revolution" scenario proposed by Greenpeace would include the phasing out of all subsidies for fossil fuels, internalisation of external costs, setting out of legally binding targets for renewable energy, guaranteed priority access to the grid for renewable generators and strict efficiency standards for all energy consuming appliances, buildings and vehicles.
Governments, industries, communities or individuals may try to act alone but the answer lies in society responding collectively through a process that builds consensus.
Black soot on snow makes it melt more quickly, yet curiously pollution suspended in the air reduces global warming by reflecting sunlight back into space. James Lovelock, in his book The Revenge of Gaia, describes our precarious situation as "living in a fool's climate accidentally kept cool by smoke".
Future scenarios, some of them with grim endings, are a feature of the IPCC fourth assessment on climate change, making it read like an environmental thriller.
Scientists have put together 40 different models for our future on this planet to address the "very likely" link between human activities and a warmer world battered by extreme weather events. Thirteen of these scenarios contemplate different choices of energy technology with varying results.
Regional impacts
Storms, floods and heatwaves causing significant disruption to human life are part of our almost certain future.
A United Nations panel has predicted more rain, droughts, heatwaves and a slow rise in sea levels that could last for more than a thousand years. The effect of decades of burning coal and oil in our vehicles and power stations has added up. Changing the way land is used, from natural areas to intensive agriculture, from fields to buildings, has brought climate change too. The planet, no longer able to withstand our unsustainable living patterns, has broken into a fever.
As a small island archipelago the effects of climate change could be experienced more intensely than on mainland Europe when it comes to biodiversity. Malta is the only spot on earth where certain species of flora and fauna are found. Yet the islands are at a disadvantage compared to the wider spaces on the continent, where animals can more easily relocate north as temperatures rise.
On the mainland, even plants can gradually re-establish themselves away from an increasingly hostile environment, as the south turns too warm and arid for them to survive. Climate change puts native terrestrial flora and fauna, held prisoner by the natural barrier of water enclosing our small land mass, at a higher risk than wildlife in other countries since, in most cases, there is no escape. Even marine species are on the wrong side of a deep underwater trench preventing migration to cooler northern waters when temperatures reach an uncomfortable threshold.
The prediction of fewer available sites with cool enough water temperatures at surface level may slow the development of marine aquaculture. Warmer sea temperatures could also increase susceptibility to disease in fish farms. Climate change impacts are expected to reduce our over-exploited fish stocks even further.
Changes to Europe's climate are expected to mean more rain in the north and less rain in southern Europe with decreased recharge of aquifers. The possibility of recharging decommissioned perched aquifers in Malta with quality water produced from sewage treatment is being studied under an EU Interreg programme. Reopening some boreholes, which have been shut down due to high nitrate levels, for storage of treated sewage effluent is being considered as an option. A draft plan for storm water management is also in the final consultation phase.
Warmer temperatures mean that more water evaporates into the air, which in turn produces more stormy weather. It is not the gradual rising of sea levels, as polar ice caps melt, that will wash away our beaches. The pounding of waves driven by more frequent and intense storms will be the biggest threat to our coastal features. This type of erosion will become more common as the world warms up. The Mediterranean and Baltic coasts, with their low tidal range, are more vulnerable to storm surges than the shores of open oceans.
Existing major tourist flows to the Mediterranean could be weakened if summer heatwaves increase in frequency or if prolonged droughts result in water supply problems. Heat waves and water shortages may compromise the attractiveness of Mediterranean destinations in summer.
Reduce or adapt?
Reducing emissions into the atmosphere as an anticipatory measure could level off the rate of global warming in the long term, dealing with the cause. The global benefits of avoiding climate change risks 100 years from now outweigh the global costs of managing those risks 50 years from now. In the shorter term, addressing the effects of a changing climate cannot be ignored. Reactive measures include planning policies to locate certain developments away from coastal areas at risk.
Ecologists are most concerned about the possible future collapse of sensitive eco-systems unable to withstand changes in the climate. Biodiversity is the web of life, which makes our home a living planet. Pollination is just one of the many valuable services carried out by nature. How quickly could humankind adjust if the animals, which play a vital role in the survival of plants, died out, or moved away because the climate became too harsh for them to stay?
Others wonder about the impact climate change would have on our tourism and on our beaches. An alarming headline recently declared that Malta's favourite family beach, Ghadira Bay, could disappear under rising seas within 50 years.
The Maltese government has taken a developing country stance among the more developed nations. Hopefully the current discussion will move beyond the latest percentage point in the fuel surcharge and Malta's reticence to comply with EU measures to rein in runaway climate change putting future generations at risk.
Compromises may have to be negotiated considering recent commitments such as the SmartCity mega-project. No mention has been made of any impact studies on energy consumption for the project. Plans to dig a dedicated trench to provide direct supply for the Ricasoli site appear to be moving ahead in the fast lane. Better legal and administrative structures working together under a co-ordinating authority are needed before Malta can begin to implement the directive on energy saving in heating and cooling of buildings.
The heat is on
One of the world's major climate change casualties will be the city of Sydney, where temperatures are expected to soar 50 per cent higher than the average rise forecast for the entire planet. The past four years in Sydney have been the warmest on record. Recent research in atmospheric science suggests that land clearing in western Sydney has contributed to major changes in the city's climate, which is entering a permanent dry spell.
Dams supplying the city will be quickly drained of water as the evaporation rates increase by 24 per cent. For the city to remain sustainable within the next 20 years residents will have to reduce their water consumption by half or consider using treated sewage effluent. In summer, maximum temperatures could rise by as much as 7°C by 2070. But heat-related deaths will jump from 176 a year - the current annual average - to 1,312 by 2050.
Comparing today's climate, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) predicts that Sydney would resemble the harsh dry conditions of the tiny village of Paterson, 150 km northwest of the state capital, in less than 25 years.
The frequency of droughts now average three every decade. By 2070 there will be only one year out of ten that will be drought free in Sydney. Bush fire frequency will almost double, with rainfall expected to be reduced by up to 40 per cent. Extreme weather events, including catastrophic storm surges of over 100 metres by 2100 will devastate seaside property and increase the risk of coastal inundation, according to the CSIRO.
European Commission emission reduction targets are 30 per cent of 1990 levels by 2020 and 50 per cent by 2050. New South Wales has set even higher targets to tackle climate change. Sydneysiders hope that Australia's prime minister will now adopt the targets nationwide as an example to the rest of the world.
How to B1
The transition to a low-carbon economy will require strong global environmental governance. In a summary for policymakers AR4 (IPCC's Fourth Assessment) has identified scenarios or alternative images of how the future might unfold. Scenario B1 is an ideal world for producing the lowest possible impact of climate change. This is where the human race should now be heading.
The B1 world is a fast-changing world with different priorities. Other worlds are based on increased productivity and further economic growth but B1 invests in improved efficiency of resource use, equity, social institutions, and environmental protection. Measures are adopted to reduce material wastage, maximising reuse, recycling and energy saving as well as reductions in pollution. Global population reaches nine billion by 2050 and declines to about seven billion by 2100 motivated by social and environmental concerns.
This is a world with high levels of economic activity. A higher proportion of this income is spent on services rather than on material goods and on quality, rather than quantity, because of less emphasis on material goods and also higher resource prices.
This world sees a relatively smooth transition to alternative energy systems as conventional oil resources decline. Land use is carefully managed to counteract the impacts of activities potentially damaging to the environment. Cities are compact and designed for public and non-motorised transport, with suburban developments tightly controlled.
Strong incentives for low-input, low-impact agriculture along with maintenance of large areas of wilderness contribute to high food prices, with much lower levels of meat consumption. These proactive policies lead to relatively low greenhouse gas emissions even in the absence of explicit interventions directed at mitigating climate change.
The affluent regions develop effective ways to support sustainable development in the poor regions, technology transfer agreements being one of the instruments. Rising affluence and intercultural exchange cause a growing interest in the non-material aspects of life, showing up in the form of declining working hours, clean-design technologies, recycling, and the like.
Teleworking, Internet-oriented education and info/entertainment, public-transport-oriented travel, use of labour-intensive services for care of children and elderly lead to consumption and production patterns that are less energy and materials intensive.
http://wwf.org.au/publications/the-heat-is-on/
http://grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/491.htm
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/future_action.htm
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