Malta to face severe water shortage

Malta should brace itself for a "major problem" in energy security as a result of global warming, climate experts have warned.

The water table will be depleted, as an increasing population demands more water in tropical temperatures, amid a widely expected drop in rainfall.

"The problem of water shortage will be a big issue in future. It's going to be one vicious cycle," Charles V. Sammut from the University's Department of Physics told The Times.

A long-awaited preliminary report out in Paris later this week is set to trigger off the alarm. It will say how fast the world is warming, how serious it is and how much is due to human activity.

Among other points, it is expected to say that the world has just 10 years to reverse surging greenhouse gas emissions or risk runaway climate change that could make many parts of the planet uninhabitable.

The new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) report is expected to predict that temperatures will rise by 2°C to 4.5°C by 2100. A report in 2001 gave a range of 1.4°C and 5.8°C.

The IPCC's fourth assessment report, which is expected to be formally approved later this year, will say that by the end of the century, climate change will bring water scarcity to between 1.1 and 3.2 billion people.

Though Prof. Sammut does not believe the effects of climate change in Malta will be devastating, adaptation is essential.

"Our population is growing and there will be more demand for water and energy. We will have longer, drier, hotter spells during summer, with an increasing energy demand for ambient cooling.

"We are vulnerable to climate change but being a small country we can gauge the impact to a certain extent," said Prof. Sammut, who was the national project manager for the First Communication of Malta to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

The biggest impact, Prof. Sammut warned, will be on the water table, which is not being replenished fast enough. A climate model by the world famous Hadley Centre for Climate Change, part of the UK's Meteorological Office, predicts that rainfall in the central Mediterranean could be down by as much as 30 per cent by 2080.

Groundwater in Malta supplies less than half the demand. While in days gone by most houses built had to have a well by law, nowadays many of these houses have been pulled down to make way for high-rise new development.

Malta somehow needs to find practical means of trapping rainwater, Prof. Sammut said, and this should also help reduce the risk of flash floods.

The island will have to rely increasingly on the desalination process, which will inevitably impact energy security. Malta sources 60 per cent of its potable water from the sea by reverse osmosis desalination, with the rest coming from ground water. At present, about seven per cent of the total energy produced by Enemalta goes for desalination.

In the present scenario, more reliance on reverse osmosis plants inevitably leads to increased demand for fossil fuels, Prof. Sammut explained. Malta has international obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cannot simply resort to burning more fossil fuels to generate the ever-increasing demand for energy.

Alternative energy sources must be implemented. There must be more emphasis on developing renewable energy sources and, above all, demand must be controlled through increased efficiency and power-saving practices. All this requires considerable investment in new technology.

Reverse osmosis plants have served their purpose but Malta might need to start looking at more cost-effective ways of desalinating water, perhaps using renewable energy sources.

Prof. Sammut believes Malta was still not doing enough to tap solar energy and capitalise on systems such as photovoltaic panels.

"Increasing temperatures will reduce the available water content in soil, leading to increased soil salinity and alkalinity, and will accelerate the desertification process. Changes in global and local agricultural patterns will result in the abandonment of agricultural land and further soil erosion."

This situation is exacerbated by the likely increased frequency of extreme events with heavy spells of rainfall.

Prof. Sammut explained that all this means that higher temperatures will favour a general shift of flora to a more desert-type assemblage. The impact of climate change on Malta ripples onto other areas - the economic costs, for example, could be devastating, especially on the all-important tourism sector.

Climate change is likely to rob Mediterranean tourist destinations such as Malta of their summer lure, as temperatures become too hot for continental holidaymakers, who would, in turn, be able to enjoy warmer summers at home. The report is actually expected to highlight that temperatures in southern European countries like Greece and Malta could become unbearably hot.

Friday's report is also believed to predict that sea levels will rise by between 28 and 43 centimetres by 2100, compared with the 2001 prediction of between nine and 88 centimetres. Coastal flooding could hit some seven million homes.

Malta is not spared. Low-lying beaches like Ghadira could be entirely wiped out in about 50 years unless some form of remedial measures are taken.

Were freak weather conditions in Malta last year the impact of climate change?

January: The second wettest January in 83 years.

February: With a mean temperature of 11.9°C, it was colder, by half a degree, than the average for the past 83 years.

March: The sunniest in 12 years. Average rainfall was 16 mm below the average for the month.

April: One of the driest and warmest Aprils in the past 84 years.

May: Sunnier, warmer and drier than average. On May 23, the highest temperature reached 35.3°C, the warmest May day on record.

June: Characterised by longer than usual heat waves. For five days the daily maximum temperatures averaged 37°C.

July: July nights, at an average of 22.5°C, were much warmer than the 30-year mean.

August: The nights were warmer by half a degree than the 30-year average.

September: September days were cooler than average, by almost one degree.

October: The last 10 days of the month were the sunniest for 60 years. October nights were almost a degree warmer than the average of the past 30 years.

November: One of the sunniest Novembers in the past 80 years.

December: The second warmest December since the Met. Office started keeping records in 1922.

Source: Meteorological Office.