Sarkozy gains momentum over Royal

Nicolas Sarkozy's acceptance speech after being chosen as the centre-right UMP's candidate in the French presidential election has been hailed by most analysts as a turning point in the electoral campaign.

Mr Sarkozy, who until now has trailed behind Socialist candidate Ségolene Royal in the opinion polls, gave an electrifying speech in which he promised to broaden his appeal to voters across the political spectrum. The latest opinion polls now show the gap narrowing between these two candidates.

Although Mr Sarkozy did bring up many traditional right-wing themes in his speech, he appealed to voters of all persuasions and paid tribute to General De Gaulle, the founder of Gaullism, which although broadly speaking is on the centre-right, tends to cut across the political divide and includes a strong social pillar. In his speech Mr Sarkozy also paid tribute to the role of trade unions in France and stated: "I have understood that humanity is a strength, not a weakness. I have changed."

In an obvious bid to boost his social credentials, Mr Sarkozy contrasted Ms Royal's 'virtual Republic' with his own 'real Republic' in which he said: "The virtual Republic is one that practises a generalised mollycoddling but leaves people to die on the pavement. The real Republic is one that makes sure the rights it proclaims are effective. It is the Republic that creates jobs, builds houses, lets workers earn a living, gives poor children a chance and makes sure everyone respects the law."

On foreign policy Mr Sarkozy promised to stand up to the United States whenever necessary and he paid tribute to President Jacques Chirac (his arch-enemy) "who honoured France when he opposed the war in Iraq, which was a mistake". So he seems to be keen on maintaining the traditional Gaullist independence from Washington, something which is very popular with the French electorate. However, Mr Sarkozy is said to be more pro-American than the typical French Presidential candidate and is keen to have a better working relationship with the White House than Mr Chirac.

Mr Sarkozy reiterated his long-held view that Turkey's place is not in the European Union and that the two sides should have a special relationship. He is here no doubt reflecting the view of the majority of French voters, but this does not necessarily make it the right policy. Keeping Turkey out of the EU would be a big mistake and it would have been better had Mr Sarkozy stressed the importance of Turkey adhering to the EU's strict political and economic criteria in order to join the bloc instead of adopting a somewhat populist position.

So, can Mr Sarkozy make it all the way to the Elysée Palace? It all depends on a number of factors. He must convince voters that he is the person who can bring about the change the country needs while preserving the country's social cohesion, he must successfully distance himself from the somewhat unpopular President Chirac without alienating the right-wing electorate, he must receive the backing of all right-wing voters in the second round of voting, he must appeal to centrist and moderate left-wingers, he must continue to go on the offensive against his Socialist opponent, making her look like a political lightweight and accusing her of not having any concrete policies, and he must hope that Mr Chirac - who was not present for Mr Sarkozy's acceptance speech and did not send a message of support - does not do anything stupid to hurt his campaign.

To his credit, Mr Sarkozy defied the odds in becoming the UMP's leader and presidential candidate in spite of opposition from President Chirac - who never forgave him for not backing him in the 1995 presidential election - and Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin. The son of immigrant aristocrats from Hungary, Mr Sarkozy has always campaigned as an outsider and has not been considered part of the country's political elite. This should serve him well in the election as opinion polls show that most voters are fed up with the status quo in France.

There is no doubt that Mr Sarkozy is a brilliant and heavyweight politician and a very good campaigner. He now has to convince voters that he has the ability to give France back its confidence and is the right leader to bring about change. As Interior Minister he has an image of a right-winger, a tough conservative on issues such as law and order, immigration and gay marriage. He also calls himself an economic liberal and promises labour market flexibility and lower taxes, even though some of his economic speeches has sounded somewhat protectionist in nature.

Although in his acceptance speech Mr Sarkozy said he would now turn towards all the French people "whether they are from the right or the left" we can expect him to adopt a generally right-wing attitude in the first round of the Presidential election in April. This is because he will have to defeat far right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen and another centre-right candidate, Francois Bayrou, to get to the second round on May 6.

It will be in this second round that the battle for the political centre between the two candidates - in all probability Mr Sarkozy and Ms Royal - will take place. At the same time if Mr Sarkozy becomes too moderate on certain policies in the run-off election he risks losing the support of far right voters, who might abstain, so he will need to perform a very fine balancing act.

Up until now Mr Sarkozy has been more specific on policy than Ms Royal, who has largely remained silent. This seems to be working in favour of the centre-right candidate and the left has started to worry. Many Socialist politicians have urged their candidate to start offering concrete proposals. The left-wing Libération called Mr Sarkozy's speech "an impressive performance" in which he triumphed with energy, talent and organisation. It added: "The left, therefore, has every reason to worry".

Ms Royal is to announce her full electoral programme next month and that should really accelerate the battle between the two main candidates. In the meantime Mr Sarkozy will continue stressing his campaign slogan: "Together everything becomes possible", hoping that he will be seen as the candidate of all the French people.