UK experts to help draw up flu pandemic model

A statistician from the Health Division will be working with British experts to prepare a model of how the next influenza pandemic might affect the island.

Data from last century's three pandemics - 1918, 1957 and 1968 - will be used to create the model, Nigel Lightfoot, director for emergency response within the UK's Health Protection Agency's Centre for Emergency Preparedness and Response, told The Times.

It is hoped the information will shed light on what could happen when an influenza pandemic strikes, making it easier for decision makers to make their plans.

"The plan is to look at records for the past pandemics so we can tell the government what we think will happen during a next one." Dr Lightfoot, who was in Malta last week, explained that this exercise has already been carried out in the UK.

Experts are assuming that the influenza pandemic will have an attack rate of between 25 and 30 per cent with about two per cent of those who fall ill dying.

The fact that this is a small island will mean that a pandemic will affect it differently from other countries.

"In bigger countries, the likelihood is that it will start in one area and move to another, and then another. But here it is more likely to pass through the population faster. The advantage is that it will be over quicker."

Dr Lightfoot, who had a look at the local plan during a meeting with the pandemic preparedness committee, believes Malta is "up there with the frontrunners", saying the government is taking the threat very seriously. "Things have moved a long way" over the past 18 months, he said.

He pointed out that antivirals - which will be the first line of defence - have been stockpiled and there is a distribution plan. Doses of the vaccine for the virus causing the pandemic have also been ordered by the government and plans are in place for those who will need inpatient care. Dr Lightfoot commended the government's decision to bring together all ministries through the committee, something that has been done in the UK.

The next step, he believes, is working on public awareness, adding that it is imperative that people understand how influenza will hit. The government needs to finalise its policy on what to do about mass social gatherings and the public advice to be issued during a pandemic, something which is considered as most important by the World Health Organisation.

The importance of people understanding that the virus is transmitted through droplets shed when coughing or sneezing should be understood. When a sick person touches his nose or mouth, the virus will pass onto his hands, and onto whatever he touches. It can survive for up to 24 hours. "This is why washing hands regularly is so important."

If people fall ill they should stay at home while the business community needs to plan how to cope when employees are sick. Those who do not take it seriously enough will find they have problems once the pandemic hits. Another thing that needs to be taken into consideration is school closures.

One needs to think about the repercussions, including whether it will mean that workers - including health professionals - will have to stay at home to look after their children. It is imperative that children stay at home when schools are closed. "We don't want children to be running in the streets."

Asked about border closure, Dr Lightfoot said unless this is done 100 per cent it would only delay the virus entering a country by a week or two. Full border closure means a country might run short of needed supplies.

"I think internationally everyone is agreeing that there is no need to close borders."

Apart from his professional interest in Malta's pandemic preparedness, Dr Lightfoot also has a personal concern - some of his family members live here. "I am very happy about the arrangements for my family," he said.