Cyprus risks being main victim of Turkey-EU deadlock

In the looming showdown between Turkey and the European Union over its troubled entry talks, the biggest casualty could be Cyprus, in what some say may be a self-inflicted wound for the divided Mediterranean island.

If EU members unhappy with Ankara's slow reforms and Cypriot demands make for a negative November 8 progress report on Turkey, it could lead EU leaders to freeze or postpone the talks, dashing hopes of stalled Cyprus peace talks resuming anytime soon.

"It would be a huge own goal if it goes wrong," said Hubert Faustmann, political analyst at Cyprus-based Intercollege. "The moment Turkey is blocked, they can kiss hopes of finding a Cyprus solution goodbye."

EU member Cyprus has been blocking Turkey's access negotiations for the past five months, citing Ankara's obligation to open its ports and airports to traffic from the island it invaded in 1974.

Turkey, which occupies the northern third of Cyprus, has dug its heels in. Despite warnings from Brussels, it has refused to implement treaty obligations on Cyprus, demanding the EU meet its own promises to ease the economic isolation of the Turkish Cypriots, whose self-proclaimed state only Ankara recognises. An EU compromise proposal is being mulled for partial opening of Turkish ports to Cypriot traffic, in return for opening EU-supervised shipping trade with northern Cyprus.

"This autumn will probably be the last window of opportunity for the Cyprus issue in many years," said EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn.

Cyprus watchers may have heard similar prophesies of doom before but fear this time it may be true.

"If Turkey is shut out of the EU, it will remove all motivation to make a move over Cyprus," said James Ker-Lindsay at Kingston University in London.

More than three decades after invading in response to a brief Greek-inspired coup, Turkey keeps about 35,000 troops on Cyprus, whose problems have defied numerous peace bids. The last UN attempt ended in failure in 2004, when Greek Cypriots, on the eve of joining the EU in the name of the whole island, rejected a reunification plan.

A new initiative for low-level talks on confidence building measures and broader issues has failed to progress while the focus is on Turkey's EU accession bid.

Cyprus President Tassos Papadopoulos led the island into the bloc on the premise his government would be in a stronger position to extract a peace deal for the island from Ankara.

He has threatened a veto twice, both times pulling back from the brink at the last moment.

"I don't think he can afford to see a breakdown. It's all bluster. He is doing what the Turks do, he is not revealing his cards, and won't do anything until the absolutely last nano-second," said a Western diplomat in Nicosia.

Diplomats are keen to see Cyprus avoid any unilateral stand against Turkey. Greece, which has its own territorial and other disputes with its large Muslim neighbour, has pledged support for Cyprus but has avoided any inflammatory rhetoric, anxious to keep Ankara within the EU accession process.

A fallback option could be a partial suspension of Turkey-EU talks, but analysts worry Cyprus may want a total shutdown, or that a crisis could lead to one.